Russia to resolve Ukraine's problems by late spring of 2024

The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is subsiding, and many try to make forecasts about the outcome of military operations in Ukraine.

Photo: redstar.ru

The US-based Institute for the Study of War said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not achieve progress in the Azov counteroffensive.

The latest report says that the Ukrainians conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the area of ​​the border of the DPR and the Zaporizhzhia region (Robotyne), while the Russian troops carried out counterattacks in the area and regained some of the lost positions there.

The institute that analyses the geolocation of video and photographic materials reports that the Russian troops continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, where they achieved success, in the Bakhmut area, on Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region, where they slightly advanced.

The Ukrainian troops carried out unsuccessful ground attacks in the Kremennaya area.

Russia needs to launch an offensive by the spring of 2024

There is a sense of impending stalemate among many Western analysts and officials, CNN noted.

They believe that the conflict in Ukraine will last until 2025, whereas the spring of 2024 promises to become a potentially important phase of it. Both Russia and Ukraine will use the winter season to strengthen their forces, CNN said.

Russia does not want the conflict to be frozen as one needs to celebrate success by the time of the presidential election in Russia in March 2024. In May 2025, Russia will mark the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Taking into account the plans of the Russian Ministry of Defence for the development of the army before 2025, one may conclude that by the time of the US elections in November 2024, Russia is supposed to be the winning side of the special military operation in Ukraine.

This obviously means that Russia will reunite with Novorossiya. President Putin has been using this term lately — it embraces the entire southeast of Ukraine.

Ukraine's chances for resistance are low

Will the Ukrainian army be able to recover in order to resist the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces?

The assistance from the West will play the decisive role at this point. If it stops coming, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fall in two weeks at most. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a "dark warning" in Washington when he said that his country would lose the war to Russia if the United States cut the support to Kyiv. One has to admit that Zelensky is right.

Washington's assistance to Kyiv has been suspended until mid-November 2023. It may well last for another month when a shutdown is announced afterwards.

Hungary blocks European support for Ukraine as well. Robert Fico's coming to power in Slovakia and anti-Ukrainian hysteria in Poland may only indicate that EU's assistance to Ukraine will be declining steadily.

Ukraine's economy has been ruined already. If Ukrainian grain exports do not revive, the country will have no money of its own at all. The people of Ukraine will be ready for everything "for all of this to end."

Ukrainian politician Alexey Arestovich* said that after Ukraine elects a Russia-loyal president, the two countries will be ready to conquer Europe together.

Chances for Russia-NATO conflict slim

The development of the conflict into a hot war between Russia and the West deems impossible (at least in 2023), because the West does not have a sufficient amount of ammo now and its production has not been expanded.

EU's economy is now in recession. Germany and France already have to cut social benefits to low-income families.

Most importantly, the West does not have a clear goal for this war. No one says that they will be ready to help Ukraine achieve victory — they say that they will be helping Ukraine "for as long as it takes." No one knows how long it will actually take. The United States wants to end the conflict with Russia in Ukraine to be able to focus on China. The British government appears to be the only government that is still throbbing for Ukraine.

The time before the presidential vote in Russia appears to be the best moment for the Russian Armed Forces to go on a full-scale offensive. By February 2024, Ukraine will be weakened by never-ending bombings, electricity and heating power shortages and low military morale.

*On May 11, 2022, Rosfinmonitoring included the Ukrainian military analyst in the Russian register of terrorists and extremists.