Energy Shortages, BRICS, and Russian Assistance: What’s Next for Cuba

In an interview with Pravda.Ru, Victor Kheifets, Director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies at St. Petersburg State University and Editor-in-Chief of Latin America magazine, explains the current situation in Cuba, including the fuel crisis, potential Russian assistance, BRICS' position, and the likelihood of Havana negotiating with the US amid economic collapse.

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Cuba

Russia and Assistance to Cuba: Why the Secrecy?

Q: Last week, President Vladimir Putin met with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez and said Russia understands Cuba's situation due to US pressure and the fuel blockade, promising all kinds of support, including economic. But there are no details in the press. What, in your view, could Russia do?

A: What Russia specifically intends to do is a question for the President, since details are not disclosed. I can say that Cuba primarily needs oil and petroleum products. The country requires around 70-100 thousand barrels of oil per day, while domestic production provides at best about 40 thousand barrels.

Cuba has very little own oil, and it is difficult to extract. Previously, the deficit was covered by imports. Part of the deliveries received at preferential prices from Venezuela were resold by Cuba at world prices to earn currency. But this source has long dried up. Mexico suspended supplies, and Russia supplied about 10-15 thousand barrels — only 10-15% of demand.

Even in Soviet times, oil was not shipped directly: there was an agreement where Venezuela delivered oil to Cuba, and Russia compensated with deliveries to Spain to avoid sending tankers across the Atlantic.

Humanitarian aid and food continue to arrive partially, including from Mexico. But oil is the key issue. Theoretically, Russia, China, or Brazil could supply it. China imports oil itself but has financial capabilities. However, I do not see regular shipments yet. Reports of a tanker with a large batch exist, but that only lasts a few days, and delivery takes weeks.

Algeria and Angola made one-time shipments, but there are no regular deliveries. Given potential tariffs announced by Trump, not everyone is willing to take the risk. Russia, however, is almost unaffected by American tariffs — trade volume is minimal. The question is more about readiness for confrontation.

Q: Why then such secrecy regarding aid to Cuba?

A: This question should logically be addressed to the Kremlin. Possibly, they want to avoid public confrontation with the US. One thing is to help; another is to do it openly amid ongoing negotiations in other areas. However, the presence of Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin at the meeting with the Cuban minister, footage of which aired on TV, suggests the oil issue was discussed.

BRICS' Position and Limits of Unity

Q: BRICS has made no statements about Cuba. Why is there no support?

A: BRICS did not issue any clear position on Iran during conflicts either; only a month later appeared a very general statement without naming any culprits. Iran is a full BRICS member; Cuba is only a partner. Some countries in the group fear confrontation with the US. This shows that the degree of political unity in BRICS is often overestimated.

Internal Situation in Cuba: Crisis and Emigration

Q: What is happening inside Cuba? What do Cubans themselves say?

A: I am not in Cuba now; my trip was canceled due to flight cancellations. But the situation there is catastrophic. Everyone understands that the US embargo plays a huge, perhaps decisive, role. However, the current leadership is unpopular, especially among youth. Fidel and Raul Castro had revolutionary charisma. Today's leadership comes from people born during or after the revolution. Young people have seen nothing but Cuban socialism and have mostly lived poorly for the last 30 years. They are not inclined to analyze blame — they just see their difficult life.

The current wave of emigration is economic. People leave due to long lines, food shortages, and daily hardships. Political emigration existed before, but on a smaller scale.

Possibility of an Agreement with the US

Q: Some believe that, like in Venezuela, there may be forces in Cuba willing to negotiate with the Americans.

A: That is logical. The US likely prefers to avoid military action. By Latin American standards, Cuba has a sizable army and militia — up to half a million people. But most experienced fighters today are 55-60 years old. Equipment is mostly outdated Soviet hardware. Cuba prepares for a late-20th-century style war: no modern air defense, electronic warfare systems, or aviation. They rely on guerrilla tactics.

The US understands this and avoids a ground operation, fearing losses. Therefore, focus is on economic pressure and negotiations with elites, possibly including Raul Castro's family — his son Alejandro already negotiated in 2014. Informal contacts may continue today. Until agreements are reached, authorities will deny everything — as before.

Q: Why would this be important for Trump?

A: The US wants no independent states in the Western Hemisphere operating outside the US sanctions regime. Cuba, 145 km from the US coast, represents a symbolic challenge. Destabilization would cause refugee inflows, which the US does not want. Likely, the goal is controlled power change through deals with military and connected elites.

Q: Many believe the Cuban elite is monolithic, unlike Venezuela.

A: Everywhere, negotiation points exist. It is a matter of time and guarantees. Those who thought Venezuela was impossible later discovered the opposite. I would not use the term "betrayal." Cuba faces a severe situation. The blockade causes power outages and deaths in hospitals. Generators need fuel, and there is none. The crisis's severity may surpass even the 1990s.

Energy and Missed Opportunities

Q: Why can't Russia supply, for example, a floating nuclear plant to Cuba?

A: Specialists note that floating nuclear plants work better in northern climates. In warm seas, their efficiency is lower. Cuba could develop solar energy — insolation is high — but this was not done systematically. Urgent steps are now underway, calculated over a decade, but Cuba lacks ten years. Eleven thermal power plants are worn out and need maintenance, which is currently impossible. The energy sector is at the limit.

Russia's Losses: Economic or Political?

Q: Russia invested heavily in Cuba — tourism, plant reconstruction, land projects. How much would we lose if we leave?

A: Economic losses exist, but political losses are more important. It would be a serious blow to Russia's image: an ally so close to the US. The suspension of direct flights (first since 1963) is already a worrying signal. Formally temporary, but temporary often becomes permanent. Soviet and Russian equipment can still be serviced by Russian specialists, but politically it would be a major loss. Despite my lack of sympathy for the current Cuban cabinet, I would like Russia to help Cuba.