Russia’s planned expansion of natural gas exports to China, particularly through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, has the potential to fundamentally alter the balance of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. According to Bloomberg, this development poses a serious challenge to U.S. strategic ambitions in the energy sector.
The U.S., which in recent years has positioned itself as a leading LNG supplier thanks to the shale boom, faces a growing threat as Beijing turns to Moscow for stable, long-term supplies. China, the world’s largest energy importer, is signaling it no longer relies exclusively on American LNG.
The strengthening of ties between Moscow and Beijing weakens Washington’s leverage in global energy politics, undermining its ability to use LNG exports as a geopolitical tool.
Bloomberg estimates that once new agreements are fully implemented, Russia will be able to deliver gas volumes to China equivalent to over 40 million tons of LNG annually — more than half of China’s total LNG imports in 2024. This scale would make Russian pipeline gas a formidable competitor to American liquefied gas, which is costlier due to transport logistics and liquefaction.
China Diversifies, U.S. Strategy Falters
China has already halted imports of U.S. LNG for over six months amid escalating trade tensions with Washington. This decision underscores Beijing’s willingness to seek alternatives when political disputes threaten supply. In this context, Russian gas emerges as both economically attractive and politically symbolic.
Analysts at investment firm Bernstein predict that Russian gas could eventually account for up to 20% of China’s energy consumption by the early 2030s, doubling its current share of about 10%.
Geopolitics Beyond Economics
These energy agreements go far beyond economics. They symbolize a deepening strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing during a period of global turbulence and intensifying rivalry with the United States.
For China, the deal means diversified energy supplies, reduced vulnerability to sanctions, and a clear message to Washington: American LNG is not indispensable. For Russia, it represents a chance to pivot away from Europe, strengthen its foothold in Asia, and secure long-term energy revenue.
U.S. LNG Investments at Risk
For the U.S., the challenge is significant. LNG export projects require massive investment and long-term demand guarantees. If China — the largest potential buyer — turns to Russian pipeline gas, the profitability of many American projects could be in jeopardy. Investors are increasingly forced to consider the risk of shrinking demand and rising competition.
Ultimately, the expanding Russia-China energy alliance signals a structural shift in the global market. Washington’s path to energy dominance is narrowing as Moscow and Beijing build a new architecture that blends economic pragmatism with geopolitical strategy.
