The Ukraine bubble is about to burst and disappear

Olaf Scholz's nerves gave out after Trump's victory. By saving Ukraine, the German Chancellor has ruined the ruling coalition of Germany and will now build it with the CDU, putting Germany's problems aside.

Photo: flickr.com by Paul Korecky, CC BY-SA 2.0

Scholz ruins ruling coalition by saving Zelensky

Germany's ruling coalition fell apart on Wednesday, November 6, after which Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who represented the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the "traffic light" coalition.

Three other FDP ministers resigned soon afterwards. Scholz plans to hold early elections in March, and his government will operate in a minority until then. The leader of the opposition CDU party, Friedrich Merz, demands that elections be scheduled for January.

Lindner's removal took place immediately after the results of US elections were announced. It appears that Scholz's nerves could not stand the comeback of political isolationist Donald Trump. The German Chancellor simply does not know how to act without the US now in the position of Ukraine's main sponsor.

Lindner refuses to finance Ukraine

It was this situation that caused the government crisis. In order to continue financing Ukraine, Scholz suggested that Lindner abolish the debt ceiling, which prevented Germany from raising loans. Germany does not have its own funds to help Ukraine — the German economy is in recession.

Lindner did not agree and proposed to reduce government spending and slow down Germany's transition to a zero-carbon economy. He said that the Chancellor's economic proposals were "boring and unambitious."

Scholz accused Lindner of putting the interests of the party above the interests of the country.

German political scientist Alexander Rahr wrote on Telegram that Olaf Scholz and the Greens see military support for Ukraine as the main purpose of German policy. The situation requires quick decisions, "otherwise Ukraine may not survive this winter."

According to the analyst, Scholz's rating is so bad that he will probably lose his post as chancellor. Germany will have a new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the head of the CDU, Alexander Rahr believes.

Scholz kills two birds with one stone by helping Ukraine and shifting responsibility to Merz

Speaking on ARD TV channel, Merz spoke in favour of delivering Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Yet, the decision should be made at the European level, he added.

In an interview with FAZ, he noted that he wanted to increase spending on the army and cut social programs. He did not explain how to solve the problem of Germany's economic downturn. The situation has reached a critical level due to high electricity tariffs, industrial bankruptcies, and the flight of factories and "brains" to the United States.

Germany faces the path towards indebtedness, whereas Scholz will remain vice-chancellor within the time-tested SPD-CDU grand coalition.

Political chaos inside EU growing over Ukraine

Long-standing partners are not going to see happy days any time soon, as two anti-Ukraine parties have been gaining popularity lately — the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Union. Their chances of getting mandates in the Bundestag are estimated at around 20 and 7 percent, respectively.

Political chaos inside the EU over Ukraine is growing. Kyiv needs help, but possibilities do not match opportunities:

• French President Emmanuel Macron has lost his majority in the French parliament and can no longer send troops to Ukraine;
• UK's Labour Party has failed to find sources of budget replenishment to increase aid to Ukraine;
• Hungary is blocking aid to Ukraine in the EU.

The Ukraine bubble is about to burst and disappear.

Details

Christian Wolfgang Lindner (born 7 January 1979) is a German politician of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) who served as the Federal Minister of Finance from 8 December 2021 to 7 November 2024. On 6 November 2024, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed in a press release to remove Lindner from his position as the Federal Minister of Finance. Under Art. 64 §1 of the Grundgesetz, only the president, that being Steinmeier since March 2017, is permitted to appoint and remove ministers. Scholz’s reasoning being that a joined coalition proved impossible. Lindner’s official certificate of dismissal was given to him at the Bellevue Palace on November 7th, where his successor Jörg Kukies has been appointed as the new Federal Minister of Finance. Lindner has been the party leader of the FDP since 2013 and a Member of the Bundestag (MdB) for North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017, previously holding a seat from 2009 until 2012

Joachim-Friedrich Martin Josef Merz (born 11 November 1955) is a German politician serving as Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since 31 January 2022 and as leader of the Union parliamentary group as well as the Leader of the Opposition in the Bundestag since 15 February 2022. In September 2024 Merz became Union's designated candidate for Chancellor of Germany for the 2025 federal election