Moscow skeptical, but verbally positive about China-Brazil plan for Ukraine

The Russian leadership verbally approves and supports the China-Brazil peace plan for Ukraine. In reality, it is just diplomacy so as not to offend the "allies".

Photo: https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/52818376512/ by Паласиу-ду-Планалто из Бразилиа, Бразилия, CC BY 2.0

China and Brazil peace plan for Ukraine

The plan to establish peace in Ukraine called "Common Understandings Between China and Brazil on Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" will be presented on September 27 in New York with the participation of delegations from 20 countries of the Global South, including Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the UAE.

Representatives of European countries and the United States were not invited to the meeting.

The plan consists of six paragraphs. Here is a brief summary of the plan:

• Halt hostilities, no escalation on either side;
• Hold an international peace conference with the participation of all interested parties;
• Ensure humanitarian aid and prisoner exchange;
• No use of weapons of mass destruction;
• Exclude attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities;
• Ensure the stability of global industrial and logistics chains.

In his opening speech at the 79th UN General Assembly, Brazilian President José Inácio Lula da Silva said that it was essential to "create conditions for the resumption of direct dialogue between the parties."

China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, said at a briefing in Beijing in late August that the six-paragraph consensus had already received positive feedback from more than 110 countries.

Ukraine rejects the plan

Ukraine does not like the plan at all. Speaking from the UN rostrum at the UN General Assembly, Volodymyr Zelensky condemned it as a "colonialist" practice that will only freeze the conflict.

"Most likely, this means that they (China and Brazil) want to do part of what Putin is doing," Zelensky said.

On September 12, in an interview with the Brazilian publication Metropoles, Zelensky called the plan "destructive." According to Western media, this plan allegedly involves finalizing the conflict on terms that would be favorable to Russia.

US secretly wants to approve China-Brazil plan

The United States stands against this agreement, Politico notes. However, Washington wants to approve the plan behind the scenes — the Americans are not happy about the fact that it was not them who authored it.

John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor, said that the White House could admit that the Kyiv authorities would have to make territorial concessions to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. No one in the West has been talking about a strategic defeat on the battlefield, like in 2022.

Russia's comments on Global South peace plans

The Russian authorities commented on the efforts of Brazil and China as follows:

"We highly appreciate these proposals. I believe that they are quite realistic, in any case, they could be used as a basis for peace agreements, however, Ukraine legislatively banned negotiations with the Russian Federation," Russian President Vladimir Putin said a year ago.

"We welcome various initiatives that the countries of the Global South are putting forward. The most important thing for us is that the Chinese document is based on an analysis of the causes of what is happening and the need to eliminate those root causes," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in April of this year.

"People who really want to consistently move toward a political settlement find compelling reasons to actively consider this (negotiation) idea," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in a commentary for RT on September 11.

What realities should Moscow take into account

Russia's position is as follows: we value, respect, and accept this as a basis, but Ukraine is not ready for a constructive dialogue. This is very diplomatic, but not realistic, because:

1. China and Brazil are pursuing their own interests. They want to buy resources from Russia at cheap prices and avoid secondary sanctions at the same time. Noteworthy, both China and Brazil support "the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders." It is clear that resolving the conflict will ease their real concerns (see paragraph 6 of the plan), but to keep the wolves fed, and the sheep safe — that is something ерфt does not happen.
2. Russia's goals in the special military operation — denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine — will not be achieved, there will be no victory, which Lavrov spoke about.
3. The Russian society will not accept such a peace option. In fact, this is not peace, but rather a truce to win some time for another major confrontation between Russia and NATO.
4. It is silly to go for the Chinese-Brazilian version of peace, when Russia has the military advantage, and the army does not like let's-make-it-a-deal attempts.

Peace must be concluded on Russia's terms, rather than on those of "allies."