Transnistria prepares to become Russian region, but Odessa will come first

Transnistria prepares to become a Russian region. Deputies of the region appealed to the Russian Federation seeking protection for Russian citizens of the unrecognised republic. The Russian army will enter Tiraspol soon.

Photo: wiki-org.ru

Transnistria was never part of the new Moldova

On Wednesday, February 28, deputies of all levels of the unrecognised Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (also known as Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, PMR) gathered for a Congress to appeal to Russia with a request to “take measures to protect” 220,000 Russian citizens of Transnistria “in the face of increasing pressure from Moldova.”

The pressure, according to them, is expressed in the total economic blockade and criminal prosecution on charges of “separatism,” although Transnistria did not join the Republic of Moldova after the Moldavian SSR ceased to exist. There was a war for independence of this part of the USSR, which de facto ended with the creation of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. A republic has all attributes of a sovereign state - constitution, parliament, president, coat of arms, flag, currency, army.

The situation in Transnistria remains critical. Many companies have to shut down their work due to the blockade, there are shortages of essential goods and medicines.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern Europe Christopher Smith visited Tiraspol before Congress where he met with the President of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky.

It appears that the parties failed to agree to revoke the appeal to the Russian Federation even though it is the United States that puppeteers Moldovan President Maia Sandu.

The PMR voted to join Russia in a referendum in 2006. Tiraspol’s recent appeal to Russia resembles the request from the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic (DPR and LPR) in February 2022, after which President Putin decided to start the special operation in Ukraine. Many expected that Moscow would announce its recognition of the PMR, and the process of Transnistria’s entry into the Russian Federation would begin.

Yet, there is no common border between Russia and Transnistria and it is only possible to lift the blockade from the unrecognised republic only by liberating the Odessa region.

Chisinau controls everything that goes to Transnistria after Ukraine closed the Transnistrian section of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022. Thus, the rotation of as many as 1,500 Russian soldiers from Transnistria is no longer possible.

Ukraine has long been targeting warehouses in Kolbasna

Kyiv believes that one should help Chisinau “eliminate the Transnistrian thorn” and gain access to ammunition depots in return - Europe's largest reserves in the village of Kolbasna. This was voiced by Ukrainian MP from the European Solidarity party Alexey Goncharenko. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin shares the same idea. 

“We do not need a Russian enclave on our and Moldova's way to the European Union. This is a tumour inside, and we must cure it in an appropriate strategic way. There is a large ammunition depot there, it has been there since the time of WWI. There are many threats there, and we need to make them explode,” he said.

Russia needs to take the Odessa region to reach Transnistria

Russian military leaders have repeatedly stated that the Russian forces need to access Transnistria. Acting commander of the Central Military District Rustam Minnekaev said two years ago that one of the tasks of the Russian army was to establish total control over Donbass and Southern Ukraine. This would make it possible to ensure a land corridor to Crimea, influence vitally important objects of the Ukrainian economy and reach Transnistria, he said.

The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has not abandoned this idea. It is impossible to secure the Russian Black Sea Fleet without taking Odessa. 

By summer, the Russian army may break through Ukrainian defences, reach Odessa and liberate Transnistria. The West promised to support Moldova, but Western countries become increasingly divided. It appears that the West will only “condemn” Russia's actions and continue supporting Chisinau in words. All warehouses in Kolbasna are mined. If they explode, the blast will equal a 7-7.5 earthquake in power. It is worth noting that Kolbasna lies approximately 2 km from the Ukrainian border.

If Chisinau and Kyiv try to occupy the region, one can expect toughest and most unexpected radical decisions, and the moment will come when Russian troops enter Transnistria to protect Russian citizens there.