Thanksgiving Respite: The Somerset Plan for Peace in Ukraine

So this week came reports of yet ANOTHER burgeoning peace plan in Ukraine.

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Ukraine

The particular document has 28 points which Yours Truly shall meticulously analyze in regard to the pertinent nations concerned, their variable liabilities under the agreement, the degree to which this conditions territory as per a neo-geographic region of the Near East, as well as…

Awww, Hell no…We ain’t doing all that nonsense.

Any plan with 28 Points only provides as many areas of future discord - unlikely to succeed initially and liable to fail eventually.

Therefore, I present unto The Powers That Be – The Somerset Plan!

It’s Very Simple

That’s the title of a book by Alan Stang, by the way. You really ought to read it. The text is about how Stang, along with his partner (who was a Black Woman), attempted to reveal facts behind some of the vaunted Civil Rights work of Martin Luther King, Jr. (Who was NOT as beloved in his time as he is today.)

Anyhow, getting back to the morass which is Ukraine, the Somerset Plan is cogent – and doable.

Chop the thing in half…down by the river.

For those unacquainted with Ukrainian geography, the country is basically cut in two by the Dnieper (or Dnipro) River – incidentally, “right” and “left” are determined by flow of the waterway, which in this instance is South, meaning looking at a map (when NOT standing on your head) the “left” is in fact “right”. (NOTE: For our purposes we are ditching this archaic rule and going with Objective Reality.)

Thus, on the Visual Left are: Kiev (the Capital), Lviv (the Refugee Hub), and Odessa (the Port & Prostitute Paradise).

Concurrently, on the Visual Right are: Kharkiv (very near Russian border), Dnipro (on the River), and Crimea (very generally speaking, since it’s a de facto Island).

Obviously, Ukraine wants all of “their” land returned; meanwhile, Russia currently holds nearly all of four oblasts (zones, roughly equivalent to our States) and intends to keep them. Crimea was always Russian, so we aren’t even going to discuss that ridiculous claim by Zelensky AKA Commander Cosplay.

The State of the Conflict

Basically Ukraine is losing. They put up a brave (if misguided) effort, but they’re definitely going to lose. The reason is because Russia views this crisis as existential, has devoted all their Economy toward it, and have a magnitude higher population to involve in the struggle.

Eventually – not today, maybe not this year, but not too distant – Ukraine will reach a juncture no matter how much money they swindle from American Taxpayers there will be no one remaining to fight.

Already Kiev is sending elderly men, kidnapped boys, and mentally retarded people to the front.

Naturally, we all hear about Moscow providing financial inducements to soldiers…but think for a moment…the roughest, toughest, meanest people being paid will ALWAYS beat out mental deficient folks. (I’m not being unkind, that is merely a logical review of who is resisting whom in this scenario.)

Hence sooner rather than later, Ukraine will have no one to march off to man the barricades.

Can Russia take the entire Eastern Half of Ukraine anytime soon? Nope. It will require years, even after Ukrainian lines break, with an all but certain insurrection of guerillas causing mayhem another decade.

In the Somerset Plan, each side gives a lot, but each gets more than either has right now - Let’s consider.

Half a Country and Certain Destruction

The initial conversation in typical negotiation with Your Humble Correspondent goes this way:

1. Here is what I want. You tell me the cost. If you can’t do what I am asking, that’s fine. Just tell me. I will not be upset. Yet if you take the deal and fail to deliver you will rue it until the day you die – because it is not about the money. You looked me in the eye and said you would deliver.
2. If you fail to deliver after we shake, there will be no further settlements. I will sue you ten ways from Sunday until your last breath. I will not accept a 10x refund of the original, nor 100x, or even 1000x. Because, as I mentioned one second ago, it is not about the money.
3. Now, can you or can you not deliver? Name your price, but understand there is no getting out of the deal after it’s done.

In the present case? I’d go to each side and say the following:

1. KIEV – Here’s the deal. You’re giving up Eastern Ukraine forever. No further claims – ever. You hold most of it at the moment, but you can’t hold out in perpetuity. This includes Crimea, because…seriously, you thought you could keep the “Playground of the Czars” after 300 years based on a random document signed 30 years ago? Are you really that stupid?
2. MOSCOW – Here’s the deal. You’re getting way more territory than you can hope to win in the next decade. You’ll also save an enormous amount of money and lives. Maybe the money doesn’t mean anything, but there is a demographic crisis brewing and you don’t have 10 years to solve it. Similarly, you have no further claims on Western Ukraine forever – or else.

So the Somerset Plan is 2 Points rather than 28 Amendments.

The Consequences for Both

Naturally, one side will be resistant and one side will be wary. Here is how to reduce the friction:

1. KIEV – Once it’s done, we spend a ton of cash to rebuild everything here. Most of it is still intact, unlike in the territory you will be giving up…territory you don’t have the money to rebuild anyway. Also, you get absolute security guarantees in the form of World War Three – no joke.
2. MOSCOW – Okay, you get everything you need. You likely couldn’t hold out in Western Ukraine, even if you managed to pull off an aquatic invasion. (No insult, that’s nearly impossible for a military to achieve.) Likewise, you get farmland, whatever infrastructure remains, and people.

EXCEPT – And both of you better know this, if you take the deal, there’s no going back…ever.

Kiev? One politician spouts off about “historic lands” and the Western Powers assassinate him. There will be no more of that idiocy tolerated. You already talked yourself into a three-year conflict, so you’ve said more than enough. Also, no “take backs”. You shut up about “rights” or “claims”…or you die.

Moscow? You get a huge chunk of land and no one will be harassing you about it endlessly. Same time? One boat comes across that river – one tourist excursion, one pleasure cruise, one kid on a surfboard, to say nothing of military – and they’re dead. Also, it’s full war. You get your half and that’s it…forever.

Hopefully, this would be clear enough to both sides that any further actions would be futile to success.

As mentioned, I believe in Free Will. You give a man a choice. If he takes it, if he makes a bargain, he abides by it no matter what it costs. You stick by your Word. Always.

Likelihood and Certainty

Would either, let alone both, take the Somerset Plan? Who knows.

It is for certain each would be in a superior position in the long term. The way things are going internationally, Ukraine might eventually beg Russia to rejoin the Coalition of Civilized Nations.

Then again, if you recall the commencement of battle, there were innumerable videos of Africans and Indians and Others frantically departing. So apparently Ukraine is onboard with the whole Great Replacement social realignment. (Given this, I fail to see why Russia might want the rest of that nation.)

Anyway, very least? The Somerset Plan is coherent and rational.

It does not rely on a million points which are very easily violated having zero repercussions.

Like much Washington does these days, the current “plan” is designed to resolve nothing and provide no real security to either party, but has as its ultimate and barely concealed goal to ensure future strife.

Not to mention weapons sales.

Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America