Putin Admits He May Make a Deal with Trump in Alaska

Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly suggested that he may reach a new agreement on strategic offensive arms during his upcoming Alaska summit with Donald Trump. The potential treaty could set the foundation for long-term peace not only between Russia and the U.S., but also across Europe and globally.

“In order to establish long-term peace — between our countries, in Europe, and globally — the next logical step is a deal on strategic offensive weapons.”
— Vladimir Putin, President of Russia

Background: The Decline of Strategic Stability

Just last year, Russia's Foreign Ministry had declared the U.S. was not interested in strategic stability talks. Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Washington refused to consider the current military landscape, undermining any serious dialogue on renewing or replacing the New START (СНВ-III) treaty.

Trump: 75% Chance of Success at Alaska Summit

Despite deep tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about the upcoming summit, placing the likelihood of success at 75%. He warned, however, that failure could end further attempts at reconciliation.

Europe Fears Ukraine Becoming a Bargaining Chip

According to a Bloomberg report, European allies view Putin’s renewed interest in strategic arms as a calculated move to shift attention away from Ukraine. Analysts fear the conflict could be relegated to a secondary issue — or worse, used as a bargaining tool during negotiations.

“European allies worry that Trump — who has floated ideas like territorial swaps — could unilaterally accept Putin’s terms, weakening both Ukraine and European security.”
— Bloomberg

What Is New START?

Signed in 2010 by Presidents Obama and Medvedev, New START limited the U.S. and Russia to:

• 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers
• 1,550 nuclear warheads on these systems
• 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers

The treaty included robust verification methods, such as mutual inspections and data exchanges. Russian systems like Topol-M and Yars, and U.S. platforms such as the Minuteman III and B-52 bombers, were all covered under these limits.

Extended in 2021 until 2026, New START now hangs in the balance after Russia suspended its participation in 2023 amid ongoing Western arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Russia Officially Exits INF Moratorium

On August 4, 2025, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced its formal withdrawal from the self-imposed moratorium on deploying intermediate- and short-range missiles (INF). The move follows years of U.S. INF treaty violations, Moscow claims — including America’s 2019 withdrawal under Trump’s first term.

Three Drivers Behind Russia’s Decision

According to political analyst Dmitry Stefanovich of IMEMO RAS, Moscow’s exit from the INF moratorium is driven by:

1. U.S. missile build-up and forward deployment in Europe and Asia
2. New actors from Europe and Asia joining the arms race
3. Advancements in Russia’s own missile technology

Stefanovich emphasized, however, that today’s arms race differs from the Cold War, citing the shift toward non-nuclear systems and the multipolar nature of today’s threats.

“Comparing this with the Cold War is misleading — the emphasis now is on conventional warheads and a much broader range of players.”
— Dmitry Stefanovich, IMEMO RAS.