Former White House adviser on Russia and Eurasia Thomas Graham believes Russia has “largely” achieved its declared goals in Ukraine and should now announce victory to avoid long-term strategic exhaustion. His commentary was published in a column for The National Interest.
Graham, who served as Director for Russia at the US National Security Council, recalled that President Vladimir Putin had outlined several key objectives for the special military operation: preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership, recognition of Crimea and the four annexed regions as Russian, and the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.
“How do things stand now?” Graham asked. In his view, it’s clear that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO any time soon. “The United States and its European allies have made it abundantly clear that they are not willing to risk war with Russia to defend Ukraine. They are not prepared to take on such commitments by admitting the republic into the alliance,” he wrote.
Russia Controls Key Territories and Holds a Strategic Advantage
According to Graham, Moscow now controls roughly 85% of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, and its Crimean bridge is virtually invulnerable. He acknowledges that Kyiv refuses to legally recognize Russian control but also lacks the ability to reclaim these territories by force.
“Russia is unlikely to significantly improve its current position without prolonging the war and draining the resources needed to compete with other great powers. In other words, the longer the war of attrition continues, the weaker Russia becomes in relation to competing centers of power in a multipolar world,” Graham concluded.
Veteran Diplomat and Scholar Weighs In
Thomas Graham served from 2002 to 2004 as the NSC Director for Russia and was later promoted to Senior Director. He also worked as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and played a key role in the White House–Kremlin strategic dialogue. From 1998 to 2001, he was a senior fellow in the Russia/Eurasia program and previously served in the State Department’s policy planning staff.
Graham holds a PhD in political science and a Master’s in history from Harvard University, along with a Bachelor’s degree in Russian studies from Yale.
Putin’s Position: End the Conflict on Russian Terms
In May 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the desired outcome for Russia was to eliminate the causes of the conflict in Ukraine and create conditions for long-term peace. He emphasized that Russia possesses sufficient strength and resources to “bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion.”
