Ukraine peace talks: Russia sees three scenarios

Russia has identified three potential scenarios for negotiations on Ukraine, with diplomatic resolution being the most likely outcome, Andrey Sushentsov, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO University, a member of the Scientific-Expert Council under Russia's Security Council believes.

Photo: Kirov District Executive Committee by BelTA, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus

According to Sushentsov, there is a high probability that a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict could be reached in 2025, as both Russia and the US have shown strong willingness to engage in talks.

"Ukraine initially sought to avoid negotiations, relying on European support to continue fighting. However, European countries have signaled that they lack the resources for prolonged military assistance. Without Washington's backing, Kyiv cannot sustain the conflict and was ultimately forced to accept the US demand to enter negotiations,” he explained.

Three Possible Outcomes

Negotiated Peace Settlement (Most Likely)

• Russia and the US work towards a diplomatic resolution to end the war;
• Ukraine, lacking European military support and under US pressure, agrees to negotiations;
• Continued Conflict with European Involvement.

If Russia and the US rebuild ties, but Europe continues military engagement in Ukraine, the war could persist.

However, Sushentsov deems this less probable, arguing that the EU lacks the military and political unity for a prolonged war effort.
He warned that further militarization of the EU could split the bloc, possibly leading to its dissolution.

Breakdown of Talks & Return to Biden-Era Policies (Unlikely)

If negotiations collapse, US policy could revert to the confrontational approach of the Biden administration. However, Sushentsov considers this improbable, as it does not align with Trump's priorities.

"Trump prioritizes economic growth, territorial expansion, and strengthening the dollar's role in global trade. Continuing the Ukraine crisis does not serve his agenda,” he noted.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has confirmed that Putin and Trump will hold a phone call on Tuesday, March 18, between 4 PM and 6 PM Moscow time. The discussion will focus on normalizing US-Russia relations and the situation in Ukraine.

Putin has reiterated that Russia has never refused to seek a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis. He emphasized that Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for serious international dialogue.

Details

There have been several rounds of peace talks to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine since the war's outbreak on 24 February 2022. Throughout the talks, Russian president Vladimir Putin has sought Ukrainian recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, the cession of the four regions Russia declared to have annexed in September 2022, and guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought total Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, the return of prisoners and Ukrainian children kidnapped into Russia, membership in NATO and the European Union, and future security guarantees from the United States and other countries. The first meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials took place four days after the invasion began, on 28 February 2022, in Belarus, and concluded without result. Later rounds of talks took place in March 2022 on the Belarus–Ukraine border and in Antalya, Turkey. Negotiations in Turkey created an agreement in which Ukraine would abandon plans to join NATO and have limits placed on its military, while having security guarantees from Western countries and not being required to recognize Russian ownership of Crimea. The draft treaty was almost agreed to, but disagreements over security guarantees and the Bucha massacre ultimately led negotiations to stop.