Live Nuclear Tests May Resume Within the Next 10–15 Years

A Russian nuclear expert warns that a generational shift in leadership within nuclear weapons complexes could bring the world closer to renewed nuclear testing.

Concerns About a Generational Transition

In an interview with the Govorít Moskva radio station, Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAS, stated that the international community is now closer to resuming nuclear tests than at any time since the last North Korean trials.

“We are closer to this situation than ever since the last North Korean nuclear tests. Much of the reason we haven’t returned to testing is based on the personal factor. Experts in U.S. national laboratories, in Russia’s nuclear weapons complex, and in Europe built their careers on guaranteeing political leadership that even without tests the arsenal remains secure. We have the technologies and extremely expensive machines that allow us to confirm the reliability of nuclear warheads without live trials. But once the leadership generation changes, these discussions will intensify,” Stefanovich explained.

Technical Risks in the Next Decade

According to Stefanovich, while political considerations still play a major role, in the next 10–15 years technical factors may become decisive. The transfer of responsibility to a new generation of leaders who lack the same first-hand experience may increase pressure for live nuclear testing.

Growing Nuclear Ambitions in Asia

Earlier, the Russian Academy of Sciences reported that North Korea is planning to deploy nuclear weapons on surface ships as part of its active development of the naval component of its military doctrine.

IMEMO RAS stands for the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian: Институт мировой экономики и международных отношений РАН). It’s one of Russia’s leading academic think tanks. Founded in 1956, it conducts research on international politics, security, economics, and strategic stability. Many of its experts specialize in issues like nuclear policy, arms control, and global security.