Coffee Prices Surge as Brazil Faces Lower Harvest in 2025–2026

Arabica coffee futures on the New York Stock Exchange climbed to their highest level in two months, Bloomberg reported, as worries over Brazil’s coffee crop weighed on the market.

Weather Threatens 2025 and 2026 Crops

According to forecasts, Brazil’s 2025 harvest is expected to fall short due to unfavorable weather. Analyst Michael McDougall of McDougall Global View warned that both the current and 2026 harvests are at risk. Cooling temperatures have already triggered premature stress flowering, raising alarms in the industry.

Prices Rise for Fifth Session in a Row

As a result, coffee prices have risen for five consecutive sessions. Research from the Coffee Trading Academy projects that Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest in the 2025–2026 season will total 63.9 million 60-kilogram bags — 2.1 percent less than in 2024.

Exports Decline but Revenues Surge

In July 2025, Brazil cut its coffee exports by 27.6 percent, with shipments dropping to 164,000 tons in a single month. From January to July, overall exports fell by 21.4 percent. However, revenues jumped 36 percent to a record $8.555 billion, with the United States emerging as the main buyer.