Poland’s War Rhetoric Reflects Struggle for Role in Europe

Recent high-profile statements by Polish authorities about preparing for a military conflict should be regarded as an attempt to attract attention amid negotiations over Ukraine and a redistribution of roles in European politics, political analyst Maxim Bardin said in an interview with Pravda.Ru.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Konrad Laskowski/MFA, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Radoslaw Sikorski

Earlier, RMF24 reported that Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, speaking in parliament, declared the need to prepare for a military conflict similar to that experienced by "grandfathers and great-grandfathers.” He referred to remarks by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who said that Russia had allegedly "brought war back to Europe.”

Series of High-Profile Initiatives

Bardin noted that the statement by the Polish foreign minister is part of a series of resonant initiatives put forward by Warsaw over the past month. According to him, such activity appears systematic and aimed at shaping the foreign policy agenda around Poland.

"Over the course of a month, three rather unusual and loud initiatives have come from Poland. First, the country's president spoke about the need to obtain nuclear weapons, even though Poland lacks the infrastructure to host and maintain them. Then there were renewed discussions about reparations for the postwar period, and now we hear statements about preparing for a military conflict. This is a consistent line, not random remarks,” Bardin said.

Ukraine Negotiation Context

The political analyst linked this rhetoric to the current international processes surrounding Ukraine. He emphasized that the negotiation track involves the United States, Russia and Ukraine, while Poland is not mentioned among the key participants.

"A complex negotiation process on Ukraine is currently underway with the participation of the United States, Russia and Ukraine itself, and Poland is effectively not mentioned in this format. In the European agenda, France, Germany and the United Kingdom are prominent — their leaders are making statements and proposing initiatives — while Warsaw is barely referenced, despite Poland considering itself a direct neighbor of Ukraine and an interested party. When a country begins to be pushed out of key international processes and is not invited to discussions of major decisions, it seeks to draw attention to itself, and that is where such loud statements come from,” he noted.

Economic Dimension

Bardin also pointed to the economic dimension of the situation. In his view, the issue concerns not only political prestige but also practical consequences for Warsaw, as Poland has long received substantial support from the European Union and has been actively involved in shaping the anti-Russian agenda.

"If Polish opinion ceases to be taken into account internationally and the country is not invited to serious negotiations, the next step could be a reduction of its political weight within the European Union. Then the question of funding arises, since Poland has long received significant subsidies and played an active role in the anti-Russian agenda. Competition for influence is intensifying, and Warsaw fears losing its previous status. Such loud statements are an attempt to attract attention and remind others of its significance,” Bardin added.

Low Likelihood of Conflict

At the same time, he believes the probability of an actual military conflict remains low. In his assessment, the sharp rhetoric of Polish politicians primarily reflects an effort to strengthen their own positions within a changing international configuration.