If German Taurus Missiles Strike Russia, Oreshnik Ballistic Missiles Will Land in Berlin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing German Chancellor Friedrich Merz towards a decision to strike the Crimean Bridge using Taurus missiles. If the German politician proceeds to do that, the attack on the bridge could trigger a war between Russia and Germany.

According to Russian political analyst Sergei Markov, after a possible Taurus missile strike, the German chancellor would try to shift the responsibility onto the Ukrainian authorities. However, Moscow would accuse Germany of participating in the conflict against Russia.

Thus, the analyst noted, a war between Russia and Germany could begin as early as June 2025.

He claimed that Russia might launch strikes on German territory — targeting locations where Taurus missiles are manufactured and stored. Following this, Germany would likely retaliate in kind. NATO would then officially declare war on Russia.

According to Markov, this entire sequence is part of Zelensky’s plan, supported by Merz. He believes this is evidenced by the lifting of restrictions on the use of Taurus missiles.

German Chancellor Says Taurus Deliveries to Ukraine Possible

Following a meeting with the German chancellor, President Zelensky noted that Kyiv and Berlin were working on the issue of delivering long-range Taurus cruise missiles. He refused to share details of this cooperation, citing a promise of confidentiality.

Merz also stated that supplying Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine is quite possible. Additionally, at a joint press conference with Zelensky, he said Berlin might cooperate with Kyiv on producing military equipment, though he provided no details.

Germany’s Ministry of Defense, in turn, reported that the first long-range weapons produced in Ukraine with German funding could be ready for use within a few weeks.

Russia proposes targeting German plant if Taurus missiles used

Military analyst and editor-in-chief of National Defense Magazine Igor Korotchenko said that if Taurus missiles are used against Russia, Moscow could strike the manufacturing plant in Germany. There is only one such plant in the country, so a single strike would suffice.

“The plant is located away from urban areas in an uninhabited zone, so a strike in the evening or at night would not result in casualties,” the analyst noted.

Moscow might use the Oreshnik ballistic missile system for the attack on Germany, he added.

Another military expert, Alexei Leonkov, also said Russia was ready to respond to a Taurus strike with a “good product.”

The West lifts range restrictions on military aid to Ukraine

In late May, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Berlin would no longer limit the range of weapons it supplies to Ukraine. He added that alongside Germany, the UK, France, and the US had also lifted range restrictions.

In response to this announcement, Federation Council Senator Grigory Karasin said the Western decision was a deeply unfortunate development for peace negotiations.

“This is unquestionably very grim and very sad," the senator said.

Details

Oreshnik (Russian: Орешник, lit. 'Hazel tree'), is a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) characterized by its reported speed exceeding Mach 10 (12,300 km/h; 7,610 mph; 3.40 km/s), according to the Ukrainian military. The missile is equipped with six warheads, each reportedly containing submunitions, and has been described as highly difficult to intercept, though modern ballistic missile interceptors are designed to counter this type of system. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh has identified the Oreshnik as a variant of the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM.

The Taurus KEPD-350 is a German-Swedish air-launched cruise missile, manufactured by Taurus Systems and used by Germany, Spain, and South Korea. Taurus Systems GmbH is a partnership between MBDA Deutschland GmbH (formerly LFK) and Saab Bofors Dynamics. The missile incorporates stealth technology and has an official range in excess of 500 km (300 mi). It is powered by a turbofan engine. It can operate at Mach 0.95 and can be carried by Panavia PA-200 Tornado IDS, Eurofighter Typhoon EF-2000, Saab JAS-39C Gripen, McDonnell Douglas EF-18A+ Hornet, and McDonnell Douglas F-15K Slam Eagle aircraft. The dual stage 480-kilogram (1,100 lb) warhead, called MEPHISTO (multi-effect penetrator highly sophisticated and target optimised), features a precharge and initial penetrating charge to clear soil or enter "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers, then a variable delay fuze to control detonation of the main warhead. The missile weighs about 1,400 kg (3,100 lb) and has a maximum body diameter of 1 metre (3.3 ft). Intended targets are hardened bunkers; command, control, and communications facilities; airfield and port facilities; ammunition storage facilities; ships in port or at sea; area target attack; and bridges.