Dollar may fall to 31.5 RUR/USD

The dollar rate may drop to 31.5 RUR/USD over the next few days, analysts believe. Yesterday the dollar rate retreated by RUR0.0739 to 31.7101 RUR/USD at the MICEX (the level of the end of October 2002). The decrease in the rate is due to a lack of support by the Central Bank, which practically is staying away from the market, so the majority of operators have taken short-term positions. However, the Central Bank has prevented the rate from a further decline; yesterday it bought some $600m at the UTS, which trade volume was $692m.

Analysts believe that the Central Bank may carry out ruble interventions in the event the dollar rate eases back to 31.5 RUR/USD or lower. As far as the long-term perspective is concerned, the dollar rate is unlikely to surpass the 31.8 RUR/USD level by May 2003.