The earth can see a catastrophic warming effect in 2107, famous physicist Andrei Degermendzhi believes. This conclusion was made with the help of an original mathematical model of a possible biosphere crisis, developed by the Krasnoyarsk institute of biophysics of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The major criterion that the model heeds is the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Research has shown that theoretically, the critical date falls on 2107 when doubled concentration of carbon dioxide can trigger irreversible consequences, i.e. double high temperature and the degradation of flora and fauna.
A corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Andrei Degermendzhi, noted that the reason unbalancing the biosphere processes lay above all in mankind activities. The concentration of carbon dioxide which is 60 percent responsible for the greenhouse effect remained unchanged in the atmosphere till 1750. After that, the increased use of carbonic fuel sparked off its annual growth to the tune of 0.4 percent.
Consumption of carbonic fuel doubles every ten years. Average temperature on the earth has raised by 0.5 degrees Celsius since 1860. For comparison, over the 10,000 years which have passed since the latest ice age the temperature of the earth increased only by 5 degrees. So it is obvious that the temperature growth has accelerated.
Degermendzhi underscored that it is not the critical date (2107) that matters but its theoretical existence. This knowledge makes it possible to avoid the catastrophe by ceasing fuel combustion. As a result, the biosphere condition will be stabilized and its parameters will enter a new level of development.
The scientist remarks that "the received results can be considered real only in the framework of modern views on the biosphere's functioning."
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