The American Conservative: Putin is no facing a defeat in Ukraine

The West sometimes tries to use logic to understand what is really happening. According to the Biden administration, Putin is close to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but such an assumption is not even close to the real state of affairs. The answer to the question of why Putin will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is simple.

According to Peter van Buren, a well-known US author at The American Conservative, US President Joe Biden believes that Putin is allegedly at odds with his head because of the fear of defeat in Ukraine that may ultimately lead to regime change in Russia. At the same time, however, this is not the case at all, because there will be no Russia's defeat in Ukraine.

"Putin is not facing "defeat" in the Ukraine, as territory trades hands, and can retreat to stable pre-invasion lines in the Donbas and elsewhere with little more than egg on his face-nothing close to defeat. If you're interested in what defeat looks like, see Kabul 1989 or 2021,” the article says.

Regime change also seems unlikely, the political scientist notes adding that a nuclear strike is the last thing that Russia wants as such a move would bring NATO troops to the zone of hostilities in Ukraine.

The United States and NATO have been preparing to fight Russia in Ukraine for almost 70 years and they have used every tool for the hostilities to start, Van Buren wrote.

As for nuclear escalation, Putin allegedly has four options:

1. Russia could strike a low-yield blow at sea level off the coast of Odessa that would end up doing little real harm.
2. Another option is a nuclear strike on a large concentration of Ukrainian troops. Yet, this goal can be achieved with the massive use of artillery and aviation.
3. Option No. 3 is a targeted blow to annihilate the leadership of Ukraine, including President Zelensky. To accomplish this, Moscow needs to have accurate intelligence data. Moscow also needs to be sure that the elimination of Zelensky will lead to the consequences that the Russian Federation wants.
4. The worst option is the destruction of a Ukrainian city, civilian casualties and a nuclear storm in the name of a quick surrender of the enemy.

Russia consistently opposes such methods. Biden, however, pledged to sink Russia's entire Black Sea Navy in response to any type of nuclear strike on Ukraine. Analysts say that this could only push the Russians into yet another attempt to level the score and take the lead.