IMF unexpectedly revises Russian economy forecast for 2023

The International Monetary Fund unexpectedly revised its forecast for changes in Russian GDP in 2023 from minus 2.3 to plus 0.3 percent.

On Tuesday, January 31, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an updated forecast for the global economy as well as for economies of individual countries. The Russian outlook in the forecast has improved considerably.

In 2023, Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 0.3 percent, although the previous IMF forecast assumed its decline by 2.3 percent.

For 2024, the IMF predicts a growth in Russia's GDP by 2.1 percent (+0.6 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in October). In 2022, according to the IMF, the Russian economy contracted by 2.2 percent, while in October the fund expected a decline of 3.4 percent.

Supposedly, if the IMF forecast comes true in reality, then Russia's GDP by the end of 2024 will be 0.2 percent higher than at the end of the before-sanctions year 2021. According to October estimates, the Russian economy was supposed to decline by 4.2 percent by the end of the forecast period than in 2021.

"Against the background of the current price cap on Russian oil from the G7 ($60 per barrel), no significant impact is expected on the volume of exports of Russian crude oil. In general, Russia's foreign trade continues to reorient itself from unfriendly to friendly countries,” the IMF said.

First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said in late December that GDP dynamics in 2023 could be from "near zero” to minus one percent.

"Generally speaking, we believe that the year 2023 will be, if nothing happens, much easier than 2022. We do not see any fatal problems there. Now everything is under control and the policy is quite proactive,” Belousov then said.

Earlier, a member of the US House of Representatives, Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, admitted that Russia, being under tough sanctions from the West, proved that it was still able to trade and prosper without the dollar and friendship with Washington.