Conversation: Putin may provoke NATO in order to solve Ukrainian crisis

British analyst Matthew Sussex is convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin has three options for choosing a strategy to win during a military special operation in Ukraine.

First, Moscow can find a political solution. However, the leader of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to negotiate and intends to resist to the end.

Secondly, Russia can stabilize the front on existing lines in order to gain time and weaken the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And the third option that Sussex suggested is a further escalation of the conflict. In his opinion, Putin can send a signal to the West and Kyiv about his "decisive intentions" towards Ukraine.

Moreover, the British analyst does not rule out that the Russian army may organize provocative actions against Estonia in order to draw NATO into a full-scale war.

“And if Putin is not ready to initiate a peace process, then there really is only one path of escalation. <…> We just don’t know enough about Putin’s plans, or how he prioritizes information for decision making,” he said. Sussex in The Conversation.

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Author`s name: Petr Ernilin