Experts say Central Bank policies affect market

The dollar exchange rate against the ruble changed its dynamics on the Russian currency market in April 2004 amid high world prices of Russia's imports and consequently considerable foreign currency revenues. Such a situation on the domestic market is connected with changes in policies of the Russian Central Bank, which gave a signal to market players to buy dollars.

Monetary policies of the Central Bank encourage a decrease in the inflow of short-term foreign capital to Russia, including via bank channels, experts with the Center for Macroeconomic Research of the Unicon BDO company believe.

The official dollar exchange rate against the rubble decreased from 29.45 RUR/USD to 28.49 RUR/USD in the first quarter of 2004. As a result, the nominal ruble exchange rate against the dollar increased by 3.4 percent. Taking into account changes in consumer prices in Russia and the USA over the above-mentioned period, the real ruble strengthening against the dollar amounted to 5.6 percent.

The official euro rate against the ruble decreased from 37.10 RUR/EUR to 34.80 RUR/EUR. As a result, the nominal ruble exchange rate against the euro surged 5.8 percent. Taking into account changes in consumer prices in Russia and the euro zone, the real ruble exchange rate against the euro increased by 9.2 percent. The dynamics of the euro exchange rate against the ruble was affected by two factors: the dollar's weakening against the ruble and the euro's weakening against the dollar on world markets.