After “Desert Storm,” he still stands. Who will replace Saddam Hussein?

Despite all the fierce declaration by George Bush towards Iraq, the operation against Saddam Hussein has been put off. The reason is not that the US cannot knit together a “decent” coalition and that America's oppose the operation: the US does not pay attention to such "trivial" things. The reason is that the Americans simply do not know what will happen in Iraq after Saddam Hussein. In March, Vice President Dick Cheney intends to visit Near-East countries Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Turkey, and this visit is supposed to prepare for the military operation. It is not clear how the operation will be conducted. In the US, several variants are being considered: from a coup d’etat sponsored by the CIA to an ordinary “small” war a la Desert Storm. George Bush has probably asked his father many times why that first “storm” did not get rid of Saddam Hussein. At that time, the US probably had to take the world's opinion into consideration. Now, everything is simpler, and the US is not interested in what the world community thinks about this or that operation in this or that country.

However, it cannot hurt of the allies are well organized, which is why Dick Cheney intends to fly to the countries neighboring Iraq, the "Axis of Evil"’s main member. The US seems to be forming its anti-Hussein tactics based on these countries’ positions. However, Iraq’s neighbours hardly can influence the strategy. It has already been decided: Hussein’s regime should be destroyed, and the "Axis of Evil should contain one country less."

However, the main question has not yet been answered: who will role into Iraq after it is removed from the axis? While a candidate able to be at the head of a half-puppet or fully puppet regime is not yet found, Saddam Hussein remain quiet. For the US, it is easier to drop bombs upon Iraq than to determine its position on the new regime in Iraq.

The USA states it wants to annihilate Saddam’s regime, though what should it do with Saddam’s sons, for instance? Although Udei Hussein appears in public more often than his brother Kusei, it is said that the latter is supposed to be Saddam’s successor. At least, Saddam himself has been preparing Kusei for the role of leader. Of course, Americans cannot be satisfied another Hussein as the head of Iraq. Thirty-five-year-old Kusei has almost full control of the Iraqi armed forces and elite units of the Republican Guard. He is said to be as cruel as his older brother Udei. The US State Department is of the opinion that is namely Kusei that has created a “smoke screen” to hide Iraq’s work on weapons of mass destruction. However, the question about Saddam Husain himself is open as well. Once, after launching its operation in Afghanistan, the US wanted to catch and to annihilate Osama bin Laden. Saddam Hussein is now probably studying Osama’s experience, and he has enough time before the US finds his successor.

Sergei Borisov PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Vera Solovieva

Read the original in Russian: http://www.pravda.ru/main/2002/02/27/37641.html