Experts link dollar rate fall to ruble deficit

Judging from the situation at currency trading sessions over the pastseveral days, a drop in the dollar rate today was a reaction to theaggravated situation with ruble liquidity in Russian commercial banks,experts reported in an interview with RBC. They noted that traders had beenexpecting a ruble deficit over almost since the beginning of this week. Atthe same time, experts noted that the currency downward correction in thedollar rate was organized and supported by the Central Bank, whichcontinued currency interventions today, selling dollars for RUR 31.60, dueto large amounts of currency export revenues coming to Russia. Currency analysts reported that active sales of hard currency yesterdaywith today's settlements also testified to interventions conducted by theCentral Bank. Their volume surpassed $200m. The current ruble deficit isreflected in unexpectedly high ruble credit rates, which went up to 8-10percent. Taking into account that the next unified trading session will beconducted only on September 3, the credit rates are at 36-40 percent. Theruble deficit means that traders overestimated their strength andunderestimated credit risks. At the same time, the complicated situationwith ruble liquidity is due to the end-of-the-month factor.Specialists forecasted that the situation on the Russian currency market onthe first days of September would depend on the situation with rubleresources and strategies of the Central Bank, which may support a rise inthe dollar rate or its further correction. Today's afternoon tradingsession will clarify the dollar rate dynamics to be expected at thebeginning of September, analysts concluded..

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