Roniel Aledo: The Stalingrad point and the future of Russia and world politics

The world is coming to the climax of history. The changes on Easter Europe ten and the end of the former Soviet Union ten years ago is just the tip of the iceberg of what is still to come. Based on various elements such as an analysis of today's politics from a scholar and academic viewpoint, the current political experience on Western Europe, the Russian political phenomenon and even the concordance of Orthodox and Catholic religious elements, I can say for sure that the world is approaching its political and historical climax; one full of radical changes on the political structure of Europe and Russia. The world is coming to what I can call a recession of today's liberal democracy. Like all in history democracy was born, expanded, and now will fall or at least get reduced. This is that like all giant bodies or entities from the Roman Empire, to Sparta, to the Arian heresy, to the Spanish Empire, to National Socialist Germany; systems grow to a maximum expansion in order to reach their decadency path. This academic analysis, not opinion; I am not saying this is good or bad, I just say it happens. This means is simple words that political systems like empires, ideologies, non-true religions, etc, are born, grow, get expanded to a maximum and then begin to become smaller. Experience tells us that had been the case in world history. The most clear example of the 20th Century: National Socialist Germany was born in 1933, came to a maximum expansion in 1942 by reaching Stalingrad, to its retrograde point precisely in Stalingrad in 1943 and its end in 1945. For Hitler, Stalingrad was his point of the beginning of the end. Lenin's revolution and the Soviet Union were born in the early Twentieth century, came to its world maximum expansion in the early eighties with Afghanistan, Nicaragua and almost El Salvador, and to its "Stalingrad" point (maximum expansion just before the beginning of the end) precisely on those countries, and de facto disappeared in 1991. In the same way numerous empires, religions, movements, ideologies. We can say that with exemption of very few religions such as Buddhism and Christianism all on history comes, grows and then disappears: the question, therefore, is when the unilateral world, leaded by the United States and the European Union will reach their "Stalingrad" point; when democracy will go to its begin of the end? From a scholar analysis, despite our feelings or opinions, negative or positive, we must accept the reality that today 's liberal democracy is just a recent invention of the writers of the XVIII century. Writers famous for their anticlericalism such as Voltaire, Rousseau and the so-called Encyclopedists, were working hard developing a philosophical formula contrary to the Scholasticism of St Thomas Aquinas and the Christian world. Their work finalized in what is called today liberalism, and they were under the impression that their theory was right and "defeated" the Scholastic philosophy. Then to mask their new creation those writers took the name of Democracy from the old Greeks (even tough their formula has very little in common with the old Greek formula) and disseminated it around the world. Later developments such as the appearance of Darwin' theories helped in extraordinary way the definitive acceptance of this new formula. Darwin's theories were made doctrinal fact by the new liberal governments and were appreciated from a philosophical viewpoint and not from a scientific one. Also the Freemasonic sect helped in great way to disseminate the new formula called liberal Democracy. This sect, furiously anti Clerical and anti Scholastics saw in the works of Voltaire and Roseau, also members of the sect, the perfect apology to promote their world revolution and create a new or liberal order where laicism is the universal factor. Analyzing the future, or may be present down fall of Democracy or its "Stalingrad" point I see no surprise in the recent Jean Marie Le Pen's French shock. Europe is not an immobile body; to the very contrary, constant movement and evolutionary process happens in Europe all the time; as a matter of fact there has never been a "quiet" or real non-moving period longer than a few years in the European history. Europe, Russia included, moves, changes, and evolves in a never-ending process. I think Europe will be the engine and the geographical point for the New World Order and Democracy's "Stalingrad"; after all, it was there where it was born. France's last election results and LePen's 6 millions votes are not accident or isolated element. It is not a protest, but a natural evolution. Dr Haider's party success in Austria had neither been an accident: when a system reaches or is close to reach its point of retreat, people look for other options. So, where will the world go? My answer is controversial, buy my theory is born of an analytical approach, free of the bias and psychological aversions that Western scholars usually have. In a simple answer: Europe, Russia included, will return to far right governments. Russia will be the insurance of this evolution and the muscle behind it. Russia, in a nationalistic and far right environment will regain much of its old superpower status, will regain its protagonist position on world politics and a military, political and even in a new in history, economical way. As shocking as this theory can sound I give some of the basics behind it. Russia it is not a democratic country, at least not really; not to blame, it had never been. Russia waits for it chances, and while doing it gives the appearance of low threat and friendly hand to the United States and the West. Europe is in its natural evolution, and within the decadency of Democracy. The time will come when one of the big countries in Europe, may be one with nuclear weapons (insurance of independence), will move to the right in a radical way. Austria it is not one of those big countries, nor Italy has enough right hegemonic power, but when a country of the big ones, such as France, combines the same hegemonic power in a Right Wing party, like the power that the legendary PRI has in Mexico for more tan 70 years, then it will be the base for a historical change. If Le Pens or his party votes go during the next 20 years from 18 percent to 60 percent, political earthquake will arrive. That is what Russia needs: a big and rich country in Western Europe, independent and free from the New World Order. When Russia sees this arriving, then Russia will make its own changes and begin its own revolution. Marx and Lenin are not the path that Europe will take at the moment of providing Democracy its "Stalingrad" point; nor the path that Russia will take when doing its Revolution to the Superpower status. Communism did not work and is buried in Russia, despite the fact that some elements as independence sense and Nationalism are alive. Are precisely those elements, with the resurrection of the Christian fervor, what is going to lead Russia to a new version of the Czar's political system: Nationalism, Christianism, anti World Order position, independence of action and doctrines, authoritarism, or what is the same in today's dictionaries: far right government. Because Euro Communist in the West are also agonizing, it nether will be the path that Europe will take in its future revolution. Both Europe and Russia will embrace the far right: a big powerful country in Europe first, and Russia immediately afterwards. Despite the appearances Russia, a country that careless for Voltaire and Rousseau formulas, is still keeping its independence of ideology and movement. Russia just became in the recent Italian meeting a non-full member of NATO. This is not based on a change of politics in Russia but on a master strategy of self-defense. Russia is following the advice that says "keep your friend close and your enemies closer". Russia cannot avoid in definitively the incorporation into NATO of countries such as Latvia or Lithuania; this will be a major threat for Russia. Putin's strategy in becoming a pseudo member of NATO is to keep a closer eye on his potential enemy. Now Russia will have a seat on all planning and decision meetings on NATO; the best prevention of a NATO hostile attitude or action towards Russia. If NATO wants to conspire against Russia, it will have to make secret meetings and exclude Russia from them. Putin's move is just a way to receive the best possible intelligence information on NATO, Russia's only potential enemy. What better strategy to know your enemy's movement than assisting to their meetings? The recent partial entrance of Russia in the NATO is not more than a bluff. The mentality behind it is the wise man advice that the Godfather, gave to his son in the movie," keep your friend close, and your enemies closer". Russia is just playing that game. When Russia see that it can have a true trade partner, a satellite country in the in the hearth of Western Europe, bring together big amount of Gold from a powerful Western Europe country to its own economy and can truly trust a nuclear state, with high technology and infrastructures, as a real and ideological friend independent from the New World order; then Russia will remove its barriers to it own natural inclinations and become the authoritarian country and superpower that hides today behind the democratic and liberal mask. After the first big European country becomes dominated by the far right, Russia will follow without delay. A new Axis, Moscow-Paris, or Moscow-Rome or even an unlikely but not impossible Moscow-London, will be born. Liberal democracy will find its Stalingrad point. A dream? Fiction? The French electoral shock, the 27% of votes from Dr Haider's Freedom party of Austria, the raise of the British National party and the electoral results in Netherlands, together with Russian Nationalism, revival of Christian fervor and the Vladimir Zhirinovsky factor, together with more 15 more years, will give us the answer. For those few that don't believe in Social Sciences or political analysis, I can point to other sources with similar results. The reading of the prophecies of St. Seraphim of Sarov and those of St.Hildegard of Bingen, Blessed Rabanus Megentius Maurus, St. Caesarius of Arles and St. Francisco de Paola concerning the "Great Monarch" will be very interesting for those that have little faith in political and social sciences.

Roniel Aledo Captain of the US Army Texas

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