China may fail to pull US economy out of swamp

As the industrialized world slides toward possible recession, could still-booming developing nations come to its aid? Can China save America?

Photo: China may fail to pull US economy out of swamp

China may fail to pull US economy out of swamp

Hardly. Economies such as China's and India's are growing fast, but they are still much too small to pull giants such as the United States or Europe out of a swamp, say most economists.

For the first time, though, developing countries – now accounting for more than half of global economic growth – could probably ride out the storm afflicting richer nations

"China is not going to save the world," says Jonathan Anderson, chief economist at UBS Bank in Hong Kong. "But it is part of a very different picture. The US, Europe, and Japan will go in one direction, and the developing world will carry on."

And if the emerging markets do keep growing during a developed-world slump, economists note, they could at least cushion the blow for others. They will continue to import the industrial machinery that US and other advanced nations make and will still have an appetite for raw materials such as oil and minerals from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

Since China, Russia, India, and Brazil, the main emerging markets, account for only about $6 trillion of gross domestic product (GDP) – compared with $32 trillion in the US, Europe, and Japan – the developing countries' continued growth can only "cushion the US decline in a modest way," says Arthur Kroeber, head of the Dragonomics economic consultancy in Beijing.

America still holds the key to much of what happens in the world economy this year, economists say. Other countries are already ratcheting down their growth forecasts because of headwinds facing the world's largest consuming nation, csmonitor.com reports.

As Pravda.Ru previously reported China may lead US economy to collapse dumping US dollar.

The U.S. dollar is standing at the edge of a cliff, and most people don’t even know it.

Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have been net sellers of U.S. treasuries over the past five weeks, with $48 billion having been sold since late July, and $32 billion in just the last two weeks.

The U.S. runs budget deficits each year. If foreigners stop buying treasuries—or worse, start selling them—the dollar could be in big trouble.

The reduction in treasuries “comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying,” said Hans Redeker, foreign exchange strategy chief at bnp Paribas, one of Europe’s biggest banks.

The Telegraph reported that, according to Redeker, the numbers demonstrate “that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the U.S.”

The nation that analysts are watching especially closely at this stage is China. Whether or not Beijing is selling its dollars can’t be officially confirmed until November, when the Treasury releases its tic data. However, top Beijing officials have been signaling for at least two years that dollar sales are increasingly imminent.

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Source: agencies