According to the report, AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is facing shrinking room for maneuver due to a growing shortage of troops and weapons. NZZ attributes this worsening situation to diminishing Ukrainian resources and the uncertain pace of Western military support.
Two Scenarios to Avoid Defeat
Journalists at NZZ outlined two strategic options now under discussion in Kyiv:
- “Prolongation”: Minimize losses during the Russian summer offensive and avoid encirclement of large AFU formations. The aim is to hold out until large-scale US aid arrives and creates leverage for fall negotiations.
- “Orderly Withdrawal”: Conduct a phased retreat to more defensible terrain, reinforced with man-made and natural barriers, to avoid collapse and maintain the integrity of the Ukrainian army should negotiations go poorly.
The retreat strategy is reportedly being considered in response to soldier fatigue, including from raids into Russia’s Kursk region, and the buildup of Russian forces in the north under the “Sever” (North) group.
Over the past two years, Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov has been able to reinforce units in Donbas while freeing up forces for new operations, NZZ noted.
'The New Donbas Line'
OSINT data shared on social media platform X by French analyst Clément Moulin reveals the construction of two defensive lines by Ukraine, located 20 kilometers from the front in Kharkiv region, Zaporizhzhia, and Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk. The analyst dubbed this defense “the new Donbas line.”
According to the report, fortifications include:
- Barbed wire fencing
- Three anti-tank ditches filled with wire obstacles
- Rows of "dragon’s teeth" tank traps
- Camouflaged bunkers and shallow trenches
The line aims to slow Russian advances, protect key urban centers, and provide the AFU with a fallback option should the current frontlines collapse.
As Ukraine braces for critical months ahead, Syrskyi must choose between risking direct confrontation or trading territory to preserve strength. Analysts say the outcome may hinge on how quickly Western aid arrives — or if diplomacy gains traction in the fall.
