Caribbean Flashpoint: Why Venezuela Has Moved to the Center of US Security Strategy

The standoff between the United States and Venezuela has entered a new and potentially dangerous phase, as signals from Washington suggest that the Donald Trump administration is prepared to consider coercive measures, including limited military action, to reshape the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

USS Gerald R Ford (CVN 78) Conducts Group Sail (8749757)

While a full-scale war remains unlikely, US officials and commentators increasingly speak of targeted scenarios such as airstrikes against critical infrastructure or the seizure of Venezuelan oil facilities. Analysts argue that such actions would impose significant costs on Caracas while minimizing political and military risks for Washington.

Military Signaling Without Formal War

Speculation intensified after prominent journalist Tucker Carlson claimed that President Trump was preparing to announce a declaration of war against Venezuela during an address from the Oval Office on December 17. That announcement never materialized, but parallel developments pointed to a deliberate show of force.

On the same day, four US Navy carrier-based aircraft conducted flights near Venezuelan airspace, while Washington renewed demands for control over Venezuelan oil assets. Shortly afterward, a US Navy strike group led by the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier repositioned approximately 600 kilometers southwest of Puerto Rico, placing Venezuelan targets well within operational range.

Despite the heightened military posture, Trump avoided explicit threats during his televised address, leaving US intentions deliberately ambiguous.

Caracas Responds as Pressure Mounts

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro responded forcefully to the growing pressure, declaring that his government would defend national sovereignty under any circumstances. His statement came amid growing concern in Caracas that Washington's strategy is designed not only to weaken the state but also to fracture Venezuela's internal political balance.

Ironically, military escalation could undermine both Maduro and his opponents. Some figures within the Venezuelan opposition, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, have openly called for stronger US intervention — a stance that risks eroding domestic legitimacy if foreign force becomes a reality.

Latin America Returns to the Center of US Strategy

The renewed focus on Venezuela coincides with the release of the White House's updated National Security Strategy on December 5. The document places Latin America at the forefront of US strategic priorities, emphasizing migration control and countering the growing influence of rival global powers in the region.

The strategy explicitly references the Monroe Doctrine, introducing what its authors describe as a modernized interpretation — informally dubbed the "Trump Amendment.” The concept echoes the early 20th-century Roosevelt Corollary, which asserted Washington's right to intervene militarily in Latin America to protect US interests.

Domestic Divisions Inside the United States

Within the US, the prospect of military action against Venezuela has sparked sharp debate. On December 17, the House of Representatives narrowly rejected a Democratic-sponsored resolution that would have barred military action without congressional approval. The vote exposed deep divisions, with 216 lawmakers opposing the measure and 210 supporting it.

Public opinion remains largely skeptical. According to a survey conducted by Quinnipiac University, a majority of Americans oppose the use of force against Venezuela. Opposition is strongest among Democrats, where nearly nine out of ten respondents reject military escalation.

Russia Watches Closely

For Moscow, Venezuela remains a strategic partner, though it is not currently a central issue in broader US-Russia negotiations. Russian officials have expressed concern that Washington is deliberately increasing pressure at a moment when global diplomatic attention is divided.

"We observe a buildup of tension in the region and consider it potentially very dangerous. We urge all regional actors to exercise restraint to avoid unpredictable developments.”

The statement, delivered by Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian president, reaffirmed that Russia maintains ongoing contact with Venezuela at highest levels. At the same time, Russian diplomats emphasized their hope that Washington will avoid what they described as a fatal escalation.

As signals and counter-signals continue, Venezuela has become a testing ground for a broader shift in US foreign policy — one that blends military pressure, economic leverage, and symbolic dominance in what Washington increasingly describes as its strategic backyard.