Who will benefit if Russia collapses

CIA made a statement that the press exaggerated the conclusions of the US special services report on Russia’s coming collapse into 6-8 separate states in the 10 years to come.
In this way, CIA made Russian press a threat to the country’s integrity.

Who knows, may be it is not expedient to have so big motherland, but there are examples in history when big countries were prospering, and small states were going down. The recent example in Ukraine whose nationalists were shouting that they “are tired to feed Russia”. In reality, independent Ukraine failed to feed even itself…

The weird thing is not reporters’ writing about the coming break-up of Russia, but their confidence that the break-up will inevitably happen! According to Chairman of Russian Parliament Boris Gryzlov, “there is smaller threat of Russia’s break-up than it was in the end of 1999”. However, such a statement can hardly diminish concerns.

The prognosis for Russia written by CIA is similar to the idea of the former national security aide of the US President Zbignev  Brzhezinsky. However, Mr. Brzhezinsky idea of Russia’s break-up into three parts endures no criticism. In case of the CIA, is prognosis is very similar to the principles of the administrative reform which is currently being introduced by Russian authorities!
 
CIA prognoses the country’s break-up into 6-8 states, and the authorities has recently divided Russia into 7 districts. The district authorities supervise law-enforcement entities there.
Is the insufficiently considered policy of the authorities the main threat to the country’s integrity. What will the administrative reform result in? It is easy to answer this question. The Far East and East Siberia are very scarcely populated. The Urals, West Siberia and the Central Region are the “reservations” for Russians which is separated from the seas. The South of Russia and the Volga area are multi-national confederations and the area for long-lasting civil war. The North and Kaliningrad region are potential “occupants” doomed for having “preemptive” strikes of NATO protecting the “sovereignty” of the Baltic states.

Some politicians try to frighten Russian authorities with the idea of Russia’s break-up from time to time. In particular, former Georgian President, former Foreign Minister of the USSR Eduard Shevardnadze  said that if Russian State Duma recognizes the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Osetia, this will lead to … Russia’s collapse.  Although, no other ideas should be expected from this specialist on break-up of the USSR and later – Georgia. However, not only the US supervisors of Georgia seem to have this viewpoint.

Let us remember world history. There was the king named Philip in Macedonia, he offended neighboring countries, and the neighbors could hardly wait until he died. At last, hedied, but left a successor. That man was named … Alexander the Great! There have been more similar examples throughout history, and we should analyze if our neighbors will benefit or lose if the events unfold on different scenario, a common thing in history.  For example, what if our country gets divided not into three, but into two or four parts, such as Center, South, North (either as separate states or as one state), and a big country in the East comprising the Urals and the Volga area. This Eastern state is likely to become the assignee of the current Russian state, neither the Center with Moscow, nor the North with St. Petersburg. In this case, the new giant state will again be located between China, America and Europe, and will inherit all nuclear weapons from Russia as Russia inherited it from the former USSR (along with strategic geographical location).

Is there a guarantee that “another Russia” will not have ambitions for being a super-power? This country will occupy the last fishing area on the planet, and the “century of oil” will come to the end. Nobody will be able to occupy this Ural-Volga-Siberian-Far East republic even if all Russian submarines sink. The closest to the USA city Petropavlovsk-Kamchtsky can not be compared with Baghdad or Belgrade: Kamchatka region is the third “nuclear power” in the world after the USA and the rest of Russia!

If Russia collapses, no “Balkan scenario” will be repeated. Is there a guarantee that the parts of Russia will not apply the principles of the “new policy” introduced by Americans in Iraq? Protecting democracy, ethnic minorities (majorities)? In this case, Southern Russia will take back the Crimea and the left-bank part of Ukraine. Central Russia will unite with Belarus, Northern Russia will immediately deploy its troops in the Baltic states to re-unite with Kaliningrad region. Eastern Russia can take over Northern area of Kazakhstan and deal with the issues of Japanese clams on the Kurile Islands and US taking over the part of the bering Sea shelf?

Currently the government of the “too big” Russia is too busy for dealing with these issues. However, Western Russia will concentrate its policy entirely in the Pacific area. The USA will have more problems as Sweden did after Peter the great came to power in Russia…  And what if some “relevant” cataclysm such as the break-up of the USA, happens? What if our Western assignee will be preoccupied with the future of its “former” Alaska area?

I think Russia’s national core can hardly be weakened, despite the aspirations of Brzhezinsky, CIA and some our “democrats” to make Russia break up. Four more aggressive states can arise instead of one Russia, and I am afraid that in this case the world community will have urgent need to fight for united Russia.

Valery Davydov