A Turkish Armed Forces C-130 Hercules transport plane crashed in the border region of Georgia while returning from Baku. On board were 20 personnel, including special forces and technical staff, who had participated in a military parade in Azerbaijan’s capital on November 8. All soldiers and crew members perished. Investigations are being conducted by both Georgia and Turkey. The aircraft last underwent comprehensive maintenance in 2020. Investigators are considering three main possibilities: technical failure, human error, or external interference.
Published footage of the crash shows the plane falling in pieces, missing both its nose and tail sections.
Technical Failure Remains a Primary Theory
Turkish media outlet Haber cites two likely scenarios. First, a hole may have formed in the fuselage due to corrosion, rust, or oxidation. Second, improperly secured cargo could have shifted during turbulence, leading to structural failure. Former C-130 pilot Bülent Boralı told A Haber that “material fatigue cannot be ruled out,” noting that the aircraft model dates back to the 1950s.
Military expert Alexey Leonkov, editor of Arsenal Otechestva, told Pravda.Ru that the mid-air disintegration indicates insufficient structural strength. However, he doubts “metal fatigue” is the cause, as the C-130 is subsonic and has not experienced critical overloads. Leonkov could not recall a precedent of a C-130 breaking apart in flight. “When this plane fell, there were no visible fire sources. An inverted trail appeared from the wings housing four engines. The most probable cause is in-flight structural failure due to technical reasons,” the expert concluded.
Possible Air Defense Misfire
Turkish terrorism and security expert Joshkun Başbuğ, in an interview with Milliyet, considers technical failure unlikely. He praised the Turkish Air Force maintenance crews as “among the best in the world” and dismissed pilot error due to favorable weather. However, Başbuğ does not exclude the possibility of a collision with another aircraft, sabotage, or another type of attack.
Reports have suggested that the C-130 may have been struck by an “automatic air defense system” for failing to identify the aircraft as friendly. Terrorism and security expert Ibrahim Keleş noted that the flight path did not cross Armenian airspace, but entered Georgian airspace directly through Azerbaijani territory. Border regions in Azerbaijan are equipped with automated air defense systems, which could have unintentionally engaged the plane.
It is worth noting that Azerbaijan has not signed a peace treaty with Armenia, adding context to the heightened defensive measures along its borders.
