The future of Russia: Between the eagle and the dragon

At the end of January, the Atlantic Council (the US-based think tank at NATO) released an 85-page report entitled "The Longer Telegram: Towards a New American China Strategy." The document was dedicated to the US policy in relation to China.

The title of the document is a direct reference to the 1946 "Long Telegram" from the adviser to the US Embassy in Moscow, George Kennan, which became the concept of the Cold War.

The choice of the title thus highlights its conceptual significance for the American strategy in relations with China.

We would like to point out a few aspects to the report.

The report was published just a week after the inauguration of Joseph Biden and was tailored to the directions of his foreign policy program, in which harsh aggressive diplomacy gives way to "soft power."

A switch of attention of the Atlantic Council, which is known for whipping up Russophobic sentiments on the basis of the "Russian threat" and "Moscow's subversive activities," from Russia to China is no less interesting. It is worthy of note that the author of the publication wished to remain anonymous.

The document proposes strategic goals and key policy priorities for the United States to counter China's growing power.

They include diplomatic, informational and military-political measures. Among other things, an important role is assigned to the need to revise relations with Russia, so as not to let Russia fall into the arms of China.

This tone of the publication largely reflects the mentality of a number of both foreign and domestic political scientists who assign Russia the role of China's "little brother".

Insinuations about Russia's inevitable turn to the East and Moscow's intent to develop further in the wake of Beijing as a new world leader have been widely advertised during the recent years.

In the context of the discussion on the role of Russia in the international world, let us analyze the civilizational aspect of today's geopolitical realities.

About China

China is the only ancient civilization that had seen the times of the Sumerians, ancient Egyptians and Hittites. Its contemporaries - first civilizational formations on the territory of modern Europe - have long dissolved in the darkness of centuries.

The paradox of the survival of this ancient civilization lies in the fact that the history of the Chinese armed forces is a continuous history of defeat, starting from the Mongol conquest and ending with the colonization of northeastern China by Japan.

Neither the invention of firearms, nor the high level of development of military art made it possible to reverse this trend (Sun Tzu's treatise "The Art of War" from the 6th century BC still takes a prominent place on the bookshelves of many military leaders of our time).

The civilizational continuity of the Celestial Empire was due to (and perhaps owing to) the systematic enslavement of China by foreign invaders who had assimilated themselves among the defeated Chinese.

About Russia

Our civilization is relatively young. But it was military power that ensured its continuity through centuries.

Prince Oleg's crusade to Constantinople, the defeat of the Khazar Kaganate, the destruction of the Pechenegs and the the Polovtsians, the victory over the Livonian Order vividly demonstrated the military power of ancient Russia. Victories over the Ottoman Empire and Napoleon's army became the hallmark of the Russian Empire. And finally, the defeat of Hitler's Germany and Nazi Japan showed the superiority of Soviet military school and military-industrial complex over the advanced military powers of both Europe and Asia.

I would like to emphasize the defeat of the large, well-trained and relatively well-equipped Kwantung grouping, which had previously seized China in less than a month.

Regardless of the political course of Beijing, most Chinese people still remember who exactly liberated their country from the Japanese militarists, and feel sincere gratitude towards Russia.

About USA

The crisis of political power in America is an example of the catastrophic nature of geopolitical gluttony. By projecting power over the entire globe, it is already problematic for Washington to keep track of what is happening at home. The intransigence of political opponents at Democratic and Republican parties legitimized unscrupulous methods of internal political struggle, which took the USA to riots and pogroms.

Today it becomes clear that the hegemony of one state in the world is impossible. You can't bite off more than your stomach can digest. From this point of view, the American strategy of greed alienates even the original liberal part of the Russian society from the Western world.

What to expect?

Based on examples of history and modernity, China will continue its expansion in the economic sphere in the foreseeable future, but no military solutions to Beijing's geopolitical problems can be foreseen.

With a high degree of probability, the Chinese leadership has studied the report from the Atlantic Council and has already drawn the necessary conclusions. It is unlikely that the attempts of the United States and its allies to drive a wedge between Russia and China will lead to tangible results.