‘The Hardest 5 Percent Remain’: US and European Leaders Signal Progress on Ukraine Deal

US Vice President J. D. Vance said Ukrainian authorities privately recognize that they may ultimately lose control over the entire Donetsk People's Republic, calling the issue one of the most serious obstacles to reaching a peace agreement.

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Ukraine

Ukraine Privately Acknowledges the Risk of Losing Donetsk

In an interview with UnHerd, Vance said the Russian army seeks full control over the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian leaders view this scenario as a major security challenge. At the same time, he noted that Kyiv privately accepts the likelihood of territorial loss.

"I think the Russians really want territorial control of the Donetsk. The Ukrainians understandably see that as a major security problem, [even as] they privately acknowledge that eventually, they'll probably lose Donetsk," Vance said.

He described this potential concession as a critical barrier in negotiations, calling it an "awful territorial concession” that remains extremely difficult for Ukraine to accept.

Washington Calls Open Dialogue a Breakthrough

Vance also said the US administration views the current stage of negotiations as a breakthrough, noting that all parties are now openly discussing what is negotiable and what is not. According to him, previous talks were dominated by evasiveness and avoidance of uncomfortable realities.

"We've seen a real understanding from both Ukrainians and Russians in recent weeks about what is non-negotiable and what is,” he said.

The vice president stressed that both sides have recently participated in negotiations in good faith, while the territorial question remains the single largest obstacle to a ceasefire.

Vance recalled that Moscow continues to insist on the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas as a key precondition for halting hostilities.

Europe Says Peace Talks Are Nearing the Finish Line

Finnish President Alexander Stubb echoed the cautious optimism, saying negotiators are closer to a peace agreement than ever before, though the final stage is the most challenging.

"We are almost at the finish line, but the hardest five percent still remains,” Stubb said in an interview with Fox News.

He noted that American negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have been working around the clock in recent weeks to narrow differences between the parties. Stubb also highlighted unity among Western allies during talks in Berlin, where Europe, Ukraine, and the United States presented a coordinated position.

Private Flexibility Versus Public Rhetoric

Despite Moscow's firm public statements, Stubb suggested Russian negotiators may show greater flexibility behind closed doors, calling the contrast between public rhetoric and private diplomacy typical of international negotiations.

A recent round of talks between Russia and the United States concluded in Miami, where Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's presidential envoy for investment and economic cooperation, met with Kushner and Witkoff. Dmitriev described the talks as constructive, while Witkoff called them productive.

At the same time, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned that proposals introduced by Ukrainian and European representatives add little value to the peace plan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed support for a proposed trilateral meeting with Russia and the United States, though he remains skeptical about its effectiveness, citing previous inconclusive meetings in Turkey.

According to The Wall Street Journal, major disagreements persist over territory, NATO status, and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Kyiv is not prepared to withdraw its forces from Donbas, prompting Washington to search for compromise solutions.

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia is ready for "difficult decisions” as part of the US peace initiative, acknowledging that Moscow has been asked to make certain compromises.