Russia may run out of its National Welfare Fund completely already in 2025

In the event of a global crisis and deterioration of relations between the United States and China, the Central Bank of Russia will have to implement its risk scenario in which the bank will have to use the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

Photo: wikimedia.org by ИринаЯ, CC BY-SA 4.0

The liquid part of the fund — the part that is available for spending — will be exhausted already in 2025, the Central Bank of Russia said in its report titled "Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy."

A global crisis may occur against the backdrop of high interest rates and the imbalance in global financial markets, Central Bank analysts believe.

Separately, experts recognize the threat of deglobalization when world's largest economies may create their own trading blocs. The process will affect Russia, because it will trigger a significant drop in prices for energy resources and raw materials. The government will thus have to neutralize internal shocks through cash injections.

According to the Central Bank, the budget rule will need to be changed with a transition to a base oil price of $40 per barrel by 2027 in order to be able to avoid increased budget expenditures. In case of a negative scenario, inflation is expected to be at the level of 13-15 percent, whereas the key rate will be on average from 20 to 22 percent per annum.

As of August 1, the volume of liquid assets of Russia's National Welfare Fund amounted to 4.665 trillion rubles with the total volume of 12.277 trillion rubles.

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The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which brands itself as Bank of Russia and is also commonly referred to in English as the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), is the central bank of the Russian Federation. The bank was established on July 13, 1990. It claims the legacy of the State Bank of the Russian Empire (1860-1920) and of the Soviet Gosbank (1921-1991), even though both institutions covered a significant larger territorial scope. The bank is headquartered on Neglinnaya Street in Moscow. Its functions are described in the Constitution of Russia (Article 75) and in federal law.