One of the main topics of the NATO summit, which started in Madrid on June 28, is Ukraine. According to former US Navy officer and former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey, the participants in the meeting should have thought about the consequences of Kyiv's defeat in the conflict with Russia, since "it would be a disaster" for them.
"Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic Alliance, severely weakening the United States' long-term position in Eurasia,” Cropsey wrote in an article for Asia Times.
The founder of the Yorktown Institute believes, however, that Russian President Putin did not have "grandiose ambitions vis-a-vis NATO" when he started the operation in Ukraine. Yet, "Russian victory would fundamentally transform the Eurasian order," Cropsey wrote.
Cropsey states that despite the fact that NATO and its global partners supply arms to Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military how to use them, the Ukrainians admit that the West will not fight Russia directly.
It appears that the Western coalition is splitting. France, Italy and Germany are the weakest links. They provide military support, but:
In addition, Germany and Italy have jointly opened ruble accounts for the purchase of Russian natural gas. Even European heavyweights still buy Russian petrochemical products, albeit it was rebranded as products from Latvia or some other non-oil-producing country.
According to Cropsey, Ukraine's morale is based on the belief that the West supports Kyiv:
"If the West backs out, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must capitulate."
"If Putin simply grinds through Ukraine despite NATO's best efforts, the Atlantic Alliance can survive and resist. But if Ukraine's defeat stems from insufficient NATO support or, worse, Western European pressure on Ukraine to accept a crippling peace, Eastern European NATO will crumble," the author of the article wrote.
According to Seth Cropsey:
"Western European NATO demanding concessions from Ukraine for peace would destroy the Atlantic Alliance. At a minimum, it would roll back NATO to its 1991 borders, potentially including the Czech Republic and "eastern” Germany," the retired US official concludes.
The collapse of the European NATO system will trigger a similar transformation in the Middle East. NATO will eventually give up its Eurasian dominance to the coalition of Russia, China and Iran. The Taiwan dispute will be resolved. Japan and Australia will then realize that the game was over. So will India. Perhaps they will unite with Russia and put an end to US interests in Asia.