Will USA and Israel join efforts for splendid little war against Iran?

Russia and Germany have warned Israel against striking Iran. Several day ago, Israeli media said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was prepared to attack Iran. It was also said that Iran was about to create nuclear weapons.

The bellicose reports appeared shortly before the IAEA published the report devoted to the development of the Iranian nuclear program. According to The Guardian, the report is based on both the work of IAEA inspectors and the information received from secret services. The British newspaper quoted former IAEA inspector Olli Heinonen, who said that Iran had intensified the work on nuclear arms. Iranian scientists, Heinonen said, supposedly built and tested ballistic missiles. They also conducted computer modeling, which gave the country an opportunity to create nuclear warheads at any moment.

It goes without saying that the Islamic Republic rejects all these accusations claiming that the IAEA report is fabricated. According to Iranian officials, the agency has turned into a tool to put pressure on Iran.

In the meantime, foreign ministers of Germany and Russia, Sergei Lavrov and Guido Westerwelle, fear that striking a blow on Iran will not solve the problem. Moreover, it will lead to considerable losses among civilians and endanger the security both in the region and in the rest of the world. The ministers believe that there are diplomatic opportunities left to solve the problem of the Iranian nuclear program peacefully.

However, Israeli, as well as US and British politicians think otherwise. They believe that the sanctions, which are still being used against Iran, failed to produce the required result. Introducing a full-fledged embargo on oil exports from Iran is impossible because of China. The Celestial Empire receives nearly a third of all of its oil from the Islamic Republic.

Therefore, Israeli, US and British officials believe that there are practically no chances to avoid the military scenario in solving the Iranian problem. They also think that China will not be able to adequately respond to military actions in Iran. China will only express its concerns and that would be it, they say.

Israel has the successful experience of destroying nuclear objects of a potential enemy. It happened so with the Iraqi nuclear reactor Osirak, which was destroyed in 1981. Israel also destroyed a secret nuclear object on the territory of Syria in the area of Deir ez-Zur.

However, the state of affairs is completely different when it comes to Iran. First and foremost, Israeli military men would need to destroy several objects at once. Secondly, Israel's previous operations were conducted very close to Israel's territory. Iranian nuclear objects are farther; many of them are placed deep under the ground and are very well protected. They can survive possible air raids. Iranian officials claim that a potential enemy will not be able to destroy them.

Will Israel manage to ruin the Iranian nuclear program single-handedly? If Israel strikes Iran, it will see many missiles flying in its direction from the Hezbollah-controlled part of Lebanon and from Iran itself.

Technically, Israel is capable of liquidating the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic. The country has dozens of Jericho-3 ballistic missiles. At the same time, it is practically impossible that Israel attacks Iran alone. Israel can do it, of course, but such an action can be possible only if the Jewish State faces a lethal danger.

It is not the first time when Israeli officials threaten Iran, but things remain right where they started. It seems that the most recent bellicose statements from Israel appeared to give a push to the United States in its intention to lash Iran.

Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, said in an interview with Pravda.Ru that Israel can not attack Iran alone.

"The Israelis can't destroy Iranian nuclear objects with the use of conventional arms only. They can't do it without America's help. They undoubtedly have the ammunition to strike underground objects, but this is not enough when it comes to Iran. The task requires special powerful air bombs and strategic bombers, which Israel does not have.

"Israel only wanted to remind its US ally of the problem. They just told Washington that the problem still remains and that it has to be solved now. The USA will be able to live without the oil from the Persian Gulf for a long time. As for Iran's statements about the ability to repulse possible aggression, the forces are not equal either quantitatively or technologically.

"Will the Americans go there in the near future? It is possible. Obama's rating has dropped - he may not hope for a victory at the forthcoming presidential elections. The situation may change for the better with the help of a splendid little war. The war would solve the problem that was a hard nut to crack for previous American presidents."

Sergei Balmasov

Pravda.Ru

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