Russian Intelligence: Ukraine and Poland Preparing False-Flag Operation Against Russia and Belarus

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has warned of a new Ukrainian provocation allegedly designed to drag Europe into a military confrontation. According to the SVR, the scenario centers on a diversionary-reconnaissance group supposedly made up of Russian and Belarusian special forces that would be “discovered” on Polish territory.

Alleged Staged Operation With Polish Involvement

The SVR reported that the plan was developed by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate in coordination with Polish special services. Officials suggested the fabricated incident could include an imitation of attacks on Polish critical infrastructure to maximize public outrage. Candidates for the staged operation have allegedly been selected among fighters of the “Freedom of Russia Legion” (designated a terrorist group in Russia) and the Belarusian “Kalinovsky Regiment,” both fighting on Kyiv’s side.

The objective, the SVR stressed, is to convince the international community that Moscow is escalating the conflict and to push European states toward the harshest possible response, ideally military. After the group’s staged “neutralization,” the participants would reportedly testify before the media, accusing Russia and Belarus of destabilizing Poland. “Against the backdrop of repeated incidents with so-called Russian drones in Europe, such an episode would leave no doubt in European public opinion about who is to blame,” the SVR stated.

Zakharova and Analysts Warn of Escalation

Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also accused Kyiv of preparing false-flag operations in NATO countries, including Poland and Romania. She said Ukraine’s plan involved repairing captured Russian drones, arming them, and launching them against NATO transport hubs while simultaneously running a disinformation campaign in Europe to pin the blame on Moscow.

Zakharova argued that these actions stem from the crushing defeats of Ukraine’s armed forces. If proven, she warned, such provocations would bring Europe closer than ever to the brink of a third world war.

“The plan of the Kyiv regime is to escalate at all costs, even through senseless provocations,” Zakharova said.

Italian journalist Francesco Fustaneo, writing in L’Antidiplomatico, described these alleged provocations as signs of despair by President Volodymyr Zelensky. He argued that with Ukraine’s front collapsing and European support waning, Kyiv seeks escalation as its only option. “Every incident is exaggerated and fitted into a single, sinister narrative,” Fustaneo warned.