A military operation in Iran is probable
The American administration has been seriously looking into the issue of the "axis of evil" lately. The pressure on Syria resulted in a certain effect, and then American officials paid attention to North Korea.
Iran was next - the leader on the USA's list of "bad countries." However, the new round of pressuring the Iranian government has had a strange beginning. Recently, American and Iranian officials conducted negotiations. No one could specify what issues the two sides discussed. Comments from both American and Iranian officials were very vague and contradicted each other, and they both rejected and acknowledged the fact of negotiations. Most likely, such uncertainty testifies to the following: if negotiations indeed took place, they did not lead to any results. Neither Washington nor Tehran has changed its stance regarding the Iranian nuclear program and the struggle with the international terrorism.
In any case, Iran was subjected to harsh pressure again last week. First, they said that al-Qaida leaders might be hiding somewhere in Iran. Tehran did not deny it. However, an article in the Sunday issue of the Washington Post became a real sensation.
The newspaper wrote, citing a spokesman for the US administration, that a meeting was to take place in the White House on May 27th. The meeting, the newspaper said, was to consider the situation vis-a-vis Iran and decide on extreme measures to take against the country. It is not ruled out that American officials will decide to overthrow the existing Iranian government. A "people's uprising" with America's support is to play an important role. One can assume that American troops will be deployed in Iran afterward.
However, it seems that the White House is not yet ready to say that Iran will be persuaded to become more agreeable with the help of missiles and aircraft carriers. At least, White House spokesman Scott McClellan stated that the American administration's attitude to Iran’s rulers remains the same. In addition, McClellan mentioned Tehran's support of the Hizbollah terrorist group, although it did not mean that Washington had managed to have something go its way. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah refused to lay down his arms, having said that guerrilla warfare was legal and that is was waged in return to Israel's machinations.
A military operation in Iran is rather probable, though. At least, there are two justifications for it to take place: supporting terrorists and the development of weapons of mass destruction. These two justifications were enough for the USA to invade Iraq, and it did not matter that they eventually turned out to be fake. It does not look like anyone over at the Bush's administration will try to find a good basis this time. One is left to hope that the present pressure on Iran will remain only psychological. However, recent events in Iraq have proven that Washington prefers to shoot first.
The troops of the Southern and Western military districts will begin to return from Russia's southern borders to the points of their permanent deployment starting April 23