Brazil election puts alleged US and Russian interference under scrutiny

Just days before Brazil’s presidential election, the issue of foreign interference has unexpectedly acquired a Russian dimension. Reuters reported on closed-door September consultations between Brazil’s intelligence agency, ABIN, and representatives of France and Germany. According to a document seen by the agency’s correspondent, the Brazilian side spoke of interference by both the United States and Russia.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Rodrigosilvestri, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Latin America, Rio de Janeiro

There is, however, a fundamental difference: Washington’s actions were described as pressure, ranging from the use of legal instruments to overt political support, while the publication provides no details of the alleged Russian interference.

The story was subsequently carried by UOL, CNN Brasil, Folha de S. Paulo and other media outlets. It would therefore be premature to speak of a coordinated “Western press campaign”: to a considerable extent, these reports are simply reproductions of the same story. What is nevertheless noteworthy is that Russia appeared in the Reuters headline alongside the United States, even though the factual portion of the report provides considerably more detail about Washington.

The European interest is understandable. French Viginum officials were among those who travelled to Brasilia. Viginum is a government agency tasked with detecting foreign digital interference and regularly investigates information operations that France associates, among other things, with pro-Russian networks. The Russian dimension is therefore one of its standing areas of attention.

But the main foreign conflict surrounding the current Brazilian campaign is primarily connected to the United States. Donald Trump has openly supported political forces close to the Bolsonaro family, while the U.S. administration has applied economic and political pressure on Brazil. Washington denies the allegations of interference. Reuters has reported that the U.S. government has previously denied seeking to interfere in Brazil’s elections.

The election itself is effectively becoming a contest between two models. Eighty-year-old Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva represents the left-wing camp: strong social policy, an active role for the state, protection of lower-income groups and an independent, multidirectional foreign policy, including BRICS. His main rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, inherits a significant portion of the conservative electorate associated with his father, Jair Bolsonaro. He emphasizes security, traditional values and a more market-oriented economic course, while seeking to present himself as a more moderate politician than his father.

The gap is minimal. The latest Quaest poll cited in the source text gave Lula 39% and Bolsonaro 34% in the first round, with both at 42% in a runoff. Therefore, any allegation of foreign interference becomes politically sensitive. Current polling has continued to show a close contest: Reuters reported on October 1 that a Datafolha runoff scenario put Lula at 48% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 45%.

Brazil has already faced not so much proven interference by foreign states as large-scale attempts to influence voters digitally. In the 2018 election, mass distribution of political messages and disinformation through WhatsApp played a major role. Folha de S. Paulo reported on business-financed packages of mass messaging, and the episode became the subject of investigations. Foreign telephone numbers were also used, although that fact alone did not prove the involvement of a foreign government.

That is why the central question in the current story is not whether Russia could interfere in Brazil’s election, but what evidence ABIN possesses. So far, the published material contains specifics regarding alleged U.S. pressure, while the Russian part remains an assertion without publicly disclosed facts. Until such information emerges, there are insufficient grounds to equate the two cases. Reuters likewise reported that the ABIN briefing provided no details of the alleged Russian interference.