NATO’s new Russia rule: 'Almost sure' is enough to assign blame

Mark Rutte has urged NATO allies to publicly attribute incidents to Russia when they are "almost sure” of Russian involvement, a standard that raises questions about the role of evidence in assigning responsibility. Moscow, however, is unlikely to be intimidated.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by President Of Ukraine from Україна, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said allies should attribute incidents to Russia whenever they are sufficiently confident:

"When able, when you are sure it is the Russians, or almost sure it is the Russians, attribute it to the Russians. I applaud it,” Rutte said.

Rutte made the remark at a joint press conference with the Lithuanian prime minister on September 29, 2026, referring to comments by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe and specifically citing Estonia as an example.

If Russians were previously accused when Western governments said they were "highly likely” to be responsible, Europe now appears willing to publicly identify an alleged culprit on the basis of being "almost sure.” Evidence, investigations and courts are portrayed as secondary to the rules of the "Garden of Eden.”

Europe's political model is becoming increasingly clear

An unpleasant event? The Kremlin. An inconvenient opinion? The Kremlin. A political opponent? The Kremlin. No evidence? Almost certainly the Kremlin. At the same time, we are assured that Europe stands for democracy, freedom of speech and the rule of law. Still, perhaps this should not come as a surprise: the search for "witches” and their burning at the stake in the Middle Ages remains part of the cultural history of Catholic Europe.

It is obvious that NATO is experiencing complete confusion and uncertainty about its own strength, which is why Rutte has to convince his subordinates of things that do not necessarily correspond to reality. The same applies to his statement that Article 5 of NATO is not disclosed in detail so that the Russians do not know what the response will be or when it will come.

In reality, there are no secret instructions of this kind. Otherwise, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico would not have stated that he would not allow Slovakia to be drawn into a war with Russia. Article 5 does not automatically require member states to send troops or bomb an "aggressor.” It states that allies will take "such action as it deems necessary.”

But Rutte needs to maintain a degree of ambiguity so that Moscow will think twice.

Moscow, however, is unlikely to make decisions on the basis of such ambiguity. Russia has established procedures for responding to threats, including its stated position on what it would regard as a response to a blockade of Kaliningrad.

Yes, Russia has not managed to produce a competitive passenger car for 100 years, but it has learned to manufacture drones, shells, tanks and ballistic weapons on a large scale and continues to increase production. Russia's forces have also conducted extensive strikes against Ukrainian air-defense infrastructure, including radar and electronic-warfare positions.

It is increasingly clear that NATO countries continue to support Ukraine in the conflict. Rutte is one of the most prominent figures in that effort, although some voices within the alliance question its approach while others are actively resisting further escalation.

Very soon, we may see how Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland respond to the mounting political and military pressures surrounding the conflict.