Russia and Brazil are strategic partners, but their economic ties tell a different story

Russia and Brazil call each other strategic partners, meet within BRICS and advocate a more multipolar world order. But a new joint study by the Russian International Affairs Council and Brazil's CEBRI has revealed an intriguing paradox: political rapprochement between the two countries is moving significantly faster than their actual economic cooperation.

Photo: Pravda.ru by Marina Lebedeva is licensed under Free for commercial use

BRICS flags

Russia-Brazil trade is growing, but remains heavily concentrated

At first glance, trade figures look impressive. Between 2020 and 2024, Brazilian imports of Russian goods rose from approximately $2.7 billion to almost $11 billion. However, two categories — petroleum products and fertilizers — accounted for virtually all of this growth. In 2024, Russia supplied around a quarter of Brazil's total fertilizer imports. Brazil, in turn, primarily sells Russia meat, coffee and other agricultural products.

This is where a worrying signal for Moscow emerged in 2026: China overtook Russia as the largest supplier of fertilizers to the Brazilian market. Researchers link this in part to Russia's logistical difficulties. This means that even in a sector where Russia's position appeared almost guaranteed, competition is intensifying.

Political ties are developing faster than economic cooperation

At the same time, political contacts are developing much more actively. In February 2026, a meeting of the Russian-Brazilian High-Level Commission was held in Brasília after a lengthy hiatus. Moscow and Brasília agreed to expand cooperation in energy, nuclear technology, science, pharmaceuticals and other areas. But the transition from commodity trade to investment and joint production remains the weak point in bilateral relations.

It is also important not to confuse BRICS with a bilateral alliance. Membership in the group does not automatically mean economic integration among its members. Brazil has enormous trade volumes with China and significantly more modest trade with Russia. India buys Russian oil but has its own interests and is simultaneously developing relations with the United States. BRICS itself is growing, but its members do not always have the same vision of what the group is meant to accomplish.

Russia and Brazil face a test of their strategic partnership

For Brazil, BRICS is primarily a tool for increasing its own global weight and reforming the international financial system, rather than an anti-Western alliance. For Russia, the grouping has taken on additional importance as a mechanism for developing economic ties beyond the constraints imposed by Western sanctions. These interests overlap, but they are not completely identical.

Russia-Brazil relations can therefore be described today as a partnership of opportunities, a significant portion of which still exists on paper. Russia has fertilizers, energy resources, nuclear and space technologies; Brazil has a huge market, agriculture, industry and the position of Latin America's leading economy. But the next stage will require more than BRICS declarations: it will require banking arrangements, logistics, investment and joint ventures.

This is precisely where it will be decided whether Russia's and Brazil's political closeness develops into a genuine economic partnership — or whether the two countries remain close allies at international forums while continuing to trade mainly in oil, fertilizers, coffee and meat.