AfD Landslide Shakes Germany as CDU Loses More Than Half Its Support

Germany's political landscape shifted sharply to the right on Sunday, September 6, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a record result in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt. The party secured 43.8 percent of the vote, more than twice the support received by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Олаф Косинский, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

AfG Party congress

The result represents the AfD's strongest performance ever in a German state election. Yet the victory does not give the party enough seats to govern alone: it won 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. With Germany's established parties having repeatedly rejected cooperation with the AfD, the question now is whether the election winner can find a path to government.

The result also raises broader questions about the growing strength of the political right in eastern Germany and the consequences for Merz's federal government.

AfD Dominates as CDU Vote Collapses

The outcome largely matched pre-election polling, which had put the AfD comfortably ahead. Preliminary figures gave the party 43.8 percent of the vote, setting a new record for the AfD in a state-level election.

Its support was remarkably broad. The AfD emerged as the strongest party across every age and social group, with particularly strong backing among men aged 45 to 59, industrial and manual workers, and voters with school or vocational qualifications.

The party's success extended beyond the party-list vote. The AfD also won almost every single-member constituency in the state. Of Saxony-Anhalt's 41 constituencies, only three went to the Left Party.

The CDU, meanwhile, suffered a dramatic reversal. It finished second with just 17.2 percent and 15 seats. At the previous election, the party had won 37.1 percent and secured 40 seats.

The remaining parties crossing the five-percent threshold were the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), with 9.3 percent and eight seats; the Greens, with 8.9 percent and eight seats; the Left Party, with 8.6 percent and eight seats; and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with 5.3 percent and five seats.

Voter participation was another striking feature of the election. Turnout reached 77.8 percent, the highest recorded in Saxony-Anhalt in the modern era and 17.5 percentage points above the previous election.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's candidate for minister-president, described the result as historic and said the party had already "written itself into history.” He did not claim that he would automatically become the next head of the state government, but said the AfD was prepared to reach out to any political forces willing to work with it.

"This cannot continue. We need a fundamental political shift in this country.”

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel also left the door open to coalition negotiations. "We are democrats; we do not build walls,” she said, arguing that the election had given the AfD a clear mandate to seek control of the state government.

Weidel attributed the CDU's collapse in part to its long-standing refusal to cooperate with the AfD. She went further, predicting that the Christian Democrats would never win another election.

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla outlined some of the changes the party would pursue if it entered government. Among them, he promised a sharp reduction in funding for non-governmental organizations. He also said the AfD would press the federal government to abandon its sanctions policy toward Russia.

"We want to have good relations with Russia again.”

CDU politician Sven Schulze, the incumbent minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt, acknowledged defeat after the first results were released and congratulated the AfD. He said the unusually high turnout made the result particularly significant and described the vote as a clear message from the electorate.

"Some say this is a black day for Saxony-Anhalt. I say this is democracy. People have sent a signal.”

The SPD also treated the result as a warning. Party co-leader Lars Klingbeil called the election a turning point and said it should prompt another examination of the government's reform agenda.

Sahra Wagenknecht, meanwhile, interpreted the result as an opportunity to alter Germany's political direction, including its foreign policy.

"A majority has emerged that supports a change in energy policy, the lifting of sanctions against Russia, improvements in education and a fundamental reform of public broadcasting.”

The BSW is currently the only party to have openly considered cooperation with the AfD on selected issues. At the end of August, representatives of the two parties said they were prepared to support a joint resolution opposing German assistance to Ukraine.

Combined, the AfD and BSW control enough seats to command an absolute majority in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament. Whether that numerical possibility can translate into political cooperation remains uncertain.

AfD Victory Draws Praise and Condemnation Abroad

The election immediately attracted attention beyond Germany. Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated the AfD leadership on its performance, portraying the result as a breakthrough for the German and European right.

"What a great night for Germany and Europe! Congratulations to Alice Weidel, Ulrich Siegmund and the entire AfD on a convincing victory in Saxony-Anhalt! Keep going. This is only the beginning!”

American entrepreneur Elon Musk also welcomed the result, describing it as "great work.”

In Russia, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), argued that the AfD could become the political force capable of pushing Germany and Europe toward closer relations with Moscow.

"The AfD will restore Germany and Europe by leading a reasonable approach that politicians in the European Union who are loyal to migrants, foment war and adhere to Biden's views have tried to eradicate.”

The reaction from Poland was sharply different. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the AfD's success and attacked Poles who celebrated the result.

"In Poland, only idiots or traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD in Germany.”

Why Eastern Germany Is Moving to the Right

Saxony-Anhalt, a state of just over two million people, occupies part of the territory of the former German Democratic Republic. Its economic history helps explain some of the political forces behind the AfD's success.

About 2.6 percent of Germany's population lives in Saxony-Anhalt.

The state retains a significant industrial base, including oil refining, petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals. The sharp rise in energy costs following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, combined with the deterioration of economic ties with Russia, has placed particular pressure on the region's industrial economy.

For that reason, Saxony-Anhalt is sometimes compared with the American Rust Belt. Both regions have long industrial traditions but have also struggled with economic restructuring and demographic decline.

Against this backdrop, the AfD's calls for restoring relations with Russia and ending sanctions can resonate more strongly than they do in many western parts of Germany.

Still, the state election should not be interpreted as a direct referendum on federal policy, according to Maria Khorolskaya, a political scientist specializing in Germany and a research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

"The states have enormous influence over the formation of political policy, but the most important issues, especially foreign-policy matters, are nevertheless decided at the federal level.”

Even so, the scale of the AfD's victory makes it difficult for Berlin to ignore the political message coming from the east.

What Explains the AfD's Record Performance?

Khorolskaya points to changes in the AfD itself as one factor behind its growing appeal. The party has revised and expanded its political platform, making it more closely aligned with issues that matter to voters in eastern Germany.

The AfD, she argues, has evolved beyond being merely a political protest vehicle and established itself as a force with concrete positions on migration, domestic security and, to a degree, foreign policy.

"The AfD is no longer simply an image; it is a political force whose proposals on migration, domestic security and, to some extent, foreign-policy issues enjoy considerable sympathy in the East.”

The result is likely to have consequences far beyond Magdeburg. The AfD's performance could intensify pressure on the federal government and on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who had made containing the party's rise one of his political objectives.

"Friedrich Merz promised in his election program to halve the AfD's result, but what do we see now? The AfD's result in Saxony-Anhalt has doubled, while it is the CDU's support that has been cut in half,” Khorolskaya noted.

She believes the scale of the defeat could fuel demands within the governing CDU-SPD coalition for changes at the top of the parties and potentially for government reshuffles.