Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he would be pleased if the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) expelled Armenia from the alliance. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that if Armenia wants to leave, it should do so itself. What is behind this political "passing of the buck”?
Pashinyan Fears Responsibility for Leaving Armenia in the Lurch
On August 24, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in parliament that he would welcome Armenia's expulsion from the CSTO because it would spare the country the dilemma of whether to leave. He confirmed that Yerevan does not plan to return to active participation in the bloc over the next five years and is now preparing to submit an official application for membership in the European Union.
A unilateral withdrawal from the CSTO would place full political responsibility on the Armenian authorities for breaking their alliance commitments with Russia. This would leave Armenia exposed amid the unfinished peace process with Azerbaijan.
Although the Russian military base in Gyumri operates under a bilateral agreement valid until 2044 rather than under CSTO agreements, a break with the bloc would trigger a political process demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops and Federal Security Service border guards.
Those border guards protect Armenia's borders with Turkey, stretching for more than 300 km, and Iran, which extends for around 45 km, under a 1992 agreement. The base also includes an air group at Yerevan's Erebuni airport, consisting of MiG-29 fighters and Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters, as well as S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.
Without Russian air defenses and aviation, Armenia's airspace would become vulnerable to modern Azerbaijani and Turkish drones and missile systems. Building a fully independent air-defense system would require billions of dollars and years of procurement from Western suppliers.
Until 2024-2025, Russian border guards were also stationed along Armenia's border with Azerbaijan in the Syunik region, where the Zangezur corridor runs. Their complete withdrawal from all border areas would remove the last political constraints on potential Azerbaijani aggression.
Leaving the CSTO would inevitably complicate Armenia's continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). That integration would also begin to unravel, a process that is already underway through Russian sanitary restrictions. The consequences could plunge Armenia into an economic crisis whose GDP losses could rival those caused by war.
The main political responsibility facing Armenia's leadership would be finding new guarantors of the country's sovereignty. Neither the EU, the United States nor France is currently prepared to provide Armenia with firm legal security guarantees or send troops to defend Armenian borders.
Iran, meanwhile, would oppose the deployment of Western "border guards” along its borders. Pashinyan is currently being credited with ending the war, but what will happen if Baku's ambitions grow? And those ambitions are enormous, potentially extending as far as turning Armenia into a province of Azerbaijan.
Moscow Seeks to Avoid Responsibility for Catastrophe in Armenia
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to Pashinyan indirectly, stressed that if Armenia believes CSTO membership no longer serves its national interests, the country is free to make its own decision and leave the organization.
Moscow's position comes down to a simple formula: Russia does not intend to "expel” Armenia and give Yerevan grounds for accusations, and instead expects the Armenian leadership to make a clear decision of its own.
Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO in February 2024. Pashinyan has repeatedly accused the organization of failing to fulfill its obligations and provide military assistance to the republic during the Karabakh crisis.
Alongside his statements on the CSTO, Pashinyan announced plans for Armenia to begin the process of integration with the European Union in the near future. This would require a revision of its previous defense and legislative commitments within the post-Soviet space.
The Armenian prime minister hopes Russia will not impose harsh economic sanctions because Moscow does not want to completely lose its influence in the South Caucasus or damage its relations with Armenian society.
However, this is essentially a gamble. The financial assistance and development programs offered by the West cannot compensate for the potential losses caused by the closure of the Russian market and the termination of cheap energy supplies.
Ultimately, Armenia risks finding itself in economic ruin with an increasingly aggressive Azerbaijan on its border.
Russia needs a change of government in Armenia toward a more pragmatic leadership, and the developing situation could contribute to that outcome.
