Upcoming regional elections in the former East Germany promise a dramatic shift in political direction and are raising questions about the stability of Berlin's governing system.
Alternative for Germany Expected to Win in Eastern German States
Parliamentary elections are approaching in eastern German states that were once part of the GDR. One of the key votes will take place on September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt.
Germany's political establishment has grown increasingly concerned, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to win by a wide margin. Such a result would allow AfD to form the state government on its own and appoint its own minister-president, breaking the long-standing "cordon sanitaire” maintained by Germany's traditional parties.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections to the state parliament will be held on September 20, AfD is also posting record approval ratings of around 36-38 percent, comfortably outperforming traditional parties, including the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Although state governments cannot independently lift European Union sanctions or change Berlin's foreign policy, they can use the Bundesrat, Germany's upper house of parliament, to consistently block federal initiatives and create significant political pressure on the central government. One example is the investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline explosions.
AfD Will Call for an End to Support for Ukraine
German prosecutors say the suspects arrested in connection with the sabotage acted on orders from Ukrainian state authorities. If the defendants confirm those allegations, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government will have to explain why it continues sending money to a country accused of destroying a key part of Germany's energy infrastructure, with support amounting to a sum roughly equivalent to the annual budget of Germany's Transport Ministry.
Some observers predict that this could trigger the collapse of the governing coalition between the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD.
The political atmosphere has become so tense that several influential German media outlets, including Die Welt and Süddeutsche Zeitung, have begun discussing the need for presidential elections in Ukraine. For the first time, the authorities are no longer rejecting questions about the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky's presidency, effectively entering territory that AfD has long occupied. German media have also begun discussing a topic that was previously considered off-limits: the possibility that the 2022 Istanbul negotiations could have ended the military conflict.
Germany's political establishment understands that escalating anti-Russian rhetoric benefits AfD, which is campaigning on promises to normalize relations with Russia and resume gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipelines.
AfD Says Its Policies Will Improve Life for German Voters
German voters and taxpayers are increasingly asking why the current government expects them to finance two budgets — Germany's and Ukraine's — while retirement ages are rising and the healthcare system is deteriorating.
AfD voters are expected to benefit from the party's pledge to shield their states from increased financial burdens and demand lower gas and electricity prices by restarting the surviving branch of the Nord Stream pipeline.
If the SPD decides to protect its political future amid declining approval ratings and withdraws from the coalition with the CDU/CSU, Germany could face early Bundestag elections. Under current political conditions, that scenario could pave the way for an AfD victory at the federal level as well.
