Washington's changing rhetoric and its rejection of traditional formats of cooperation are forcing Seoul to seek fundamentally new ways to ensure its security.
Trump Yields to Kim's Demands and Cancels Military Exercises With Seoul
US President Donald Trump has ordered a reduction in the number and scale of military exercises with South Korea, which had been a key demand from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for de-escalating the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
"These exercises are not only expensive, since the United States of America pays most of the costs (as usual!), but also send a completely inappropriate and hostile signal to a country (North Korea) that, while Donald J. Trump was president, showed no threat and was respectful.”
Trump justified his decision by saying that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung had refused to participate in the "denuclearization of Iran.” And this is quite understandable. South Korea imported more than 70% of its oil and around 35% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz, and helping to reduce those supplies was clearly not in its interests.
Trump's decision is direct evidence not only of his attitude toward allies, but also of the strong position held by a country that possesses nuclear weapons. Moreover, unlike during Trump's first presidency, North Korea is no longer isolated by international sanctions, which Russia and China have quietly lifted. North Korean troops and military specialists have become integrated into cooperation with Russia and are adopting its experience, giving them an advantage over South Korean soldiers. In recent months alone, North Korea has tested several AI-guided cruise missiles.
Seoul Offers Pyongyang a Peace Treaty
Feeling the winds of change, Lee Jae-myung publicly proposed several days ago that Pyongyang begin negotiations to end the war, which has formally continued for more than 70 years. Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly ignore the proposal and seek not only a reduction in military exercises, but also a reduction in the US presence in the region. That is precisely what Iran is seeking and, undoubtedly, what Russia is demanding as it calls for a new security architecture in Europe.
About 28,000 US servicemen are currently stationed in South Korea as part of the US Forces Korea (USFK) contingent. Trump cannot radically reduce this number overnight because of legal restrictions. However, some units will no longer remain in Korea for years at a time and will instead operate on a rotational basis.
South Korea Has a Chance for Moscow's Mediation
Western experts are raising the alarm that Seoul could announce the creation of its own nuclear weapons and has the resources, including nuclear reactors, and the expertise to do so. In their assessment, the country could obtain weapons-grade plutonium for dozens of nuclear warheads within six months, while the Hyunmoo-4 and Hyunmoo-5 missile series can carry warheads weighing up to 8-9 tons.
However, such a suicidal move appears unlikely. Seoul will not want to follow the path of isolation taken by its northern neighbor, while North Korea could respond with a preemptive military conflict.
Another US defeat is taking shape in the conflict zone on the Korean Peninsula, and it could sharply shift the balance of power toward greater influence for anti-Western coalitions. South Korea could choose not to pursue militarization and nuclear weapons development, but instead fully join this bloc, securing numerous resource and market advantages, including logistical benefits, while obtaining mediation from Moscow to conclude peace with North Korea.
