Britain’s leadership is trying to restore communication with the Russian military after a high-profile incident at sea. Russia’s Defence Ministry holds a strong position.
The Yacht Under Fire Was a British Provocation
London is interested in restoring contacts with Russia’s military leadership to avoid incidents that could provoke direct military action between the two countries, The Times reports.
According to the newspaper, British authorities fear the risk of “unintentional escalation,” especially after the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich was forced to fire warning shots in the English Channel in June because a yacht sailing under the British flag approached the vessel dangerously.
In other words, the yacht was not sailing harmlessly near the Russian warship while ignoring radio communications. It was a provocation intended to find out whether the Russian Navy had a “red line.” The outcome caused panic because such moves are not characteristic of London.
As The Times points out, the last time Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov spoke with the Chief of the Defence Staff of the British Armed Forces was in September 2022. The last known conversation between the defence ministers of the two countries took place in October 2022. At the time, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu called his British counterpart, Ben Wallace, to express concern over possible provocations by Ukraine involving a “dirty bomb.”
British Fleet Not Ready for War With Russian Navy
London’s current concerns are understandable because escalation is increasing, but it is increasing precisely because of Britain’s own efforts. Britain would therefore do better to reduce its support for Ukraine and stop provocations against Russian commercial vessels in the North Sea. It simply cannot afford a naval war with Russia.
This is true even because of the Russian Navy’s Poseidon underwater torpedo alone, as well as the overall decline of the British fleet, which, incidentally, carries the country’s main air-defence capabilities. The fleet faces a critical shortage of ships and crews to operate them, has low technical readiness, and falls behind Russian missile systems in both strike range and speed.
For a long time, British warships had no long-range anti-ship missiles at all after the retirement of the Harpoon, while the replacement NSM systems have been introduced only slowly. According to reports in the British media, none of the newest Astute-class nuclear-powered attack submarines is currently at sea on combat patrol. Britain’s air defence is based primarily on six Type 45 destroyers. They are equipped with subsonic Aster missiles and have experienced problems with their propulsion systems.
At the same time, Russian warships and submarines are armed with Zircon hypersonic missiles and Oniks supersonic missiles, which British air-defence systems are practically incapable of intercepting at close range. Russian nuclear-powered attack submarines, meanwhile, remain fully operational and are regularly detected in the North Atlantic and near the English Channel.
Russia Will Demand a Change in London’s Policy
In Russian military analytical publications, London’s desire to restore communication is interpreted as a forced step rather than a sincere attempt to normalize relations. According to information leaked to the press, Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff, Marshal Richard Knighton, has already attempted to initiate calls with Gerasimov, but the Russian side ignored them.
Moscow will most likely leave open the possibility of emergency communication to prevent an accidental nuclear or large-scale crisis. However, Russia’s leadership will not agree to “high-level contacts” or regular dialogue, as British generals are calling for, until London changes its overall anti-Russian policy course.
The current situation is advantageous for Russia because it keeps British military forces under constant pressure.
