The change of regime in Damascus has led to a reassessment of the status of Russia’s key military facilities, with a compromise between Moscow and Sharaa emerging as the only viable solution.
Russia Has Chosen the Syrian People
Russia and Syria have signed a memorandum of understanding transforming Russia’s military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim into joint military training centers. The Syrian state news agency SANA reported this on August 9.
Syria is taking full control of Hmeimim Airport and the fourth commercial berth at the Port of Tartus, along with all warehouses. At the same time, a strictly limited contingent of Russian specialists will remain at the military training centers, carrying out training, logistical and technical functions. Clearly, a compromise has been reached. Russia has not been expelled, and Syria has not been left in the same position as Afghanistan after the expulsion of the United States, which is something to welcome.
Although Russian forces and the terrorist groups led by current Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa were on opposite sides during the Syrian war, new realities emerged after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
Syria found itself on the brink of famine and facing an acute shortage of energy resources. At this point, the Kremlin made a sensible decision. Russia continued to supply Syria with grain and oil, presenting its actions not as support for particular individuals but as assistance to the Syrian people. This helped provide stability to the new regime. To Sharaa’s credit, he recognized this.
Frankly speaking, betting on Assad’s return or that of his successors was entirely unpromising, if only because Sunnis constitute the majority of Syria’s population and Iran has withdrawn from the country.
Russia Will Help Guarantee Syria’s Sovereignty
At the same time, Western assistance to the new regime was conditional on Russia being “pushed out.” Damascus evidently assessed this condition realistically. The experience of other countries — Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan — shows that meeting the West’s initial demands only leads to new ultimatums.
Moreover, Sharaa found a way to obtain money and resources without complying with this Western condition. He began actively developing economic ties with the wealthy Gulf monarchies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are prepared to invest in Syria in order to reduce Iran’s and Turkey’s influence, and they are not demanding that Damascus expel Russia.
Damascus has also retained not only Russian instructors but electronic warfare systems, Pantsir-S1 air-defense gun-and-missile systems and Tor-M2 air-defense systems at the former bases. This system of control over unreliable armed groups helps Sharaa maintain control over the country and build a regular army.
In addition, Syria has retained Russia’s support at the UN Security Council, where Moscow has veto power. This support is necessary for the international legitimization of the new government.
Sharaa understands that without a Russian military counterweight, Syria risks becoming a de facto protectorate of Ankara, while Israel would dominate the south. Russia’s presence at Hmeimim is a guarantee that neither Turkey nor Israel will be able to dictate all the terms to Damascus.
Russian Defense Ministry Retains the Bases’ Main Function
For Moscow, given the current circumstances and the enormous resources being diverted to the conflict in Ukraine, this memorandum represents the most positive outcome realistically available from what was initially a catastrophic situation.
Yes, Hmeimim and Tartus are no longer sovereign Russian military outposts. The Russian grouping in Syria has been disbanded, while the dismantling of the S-300 and S-400 air-defense systems has deprived Russia of the ability to control the airspace over the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant.
But the most important function has been preserved by the Russian Defense Ministry: Hmeimim airfield remains available as a transit hub. This allows Russia to continue supplying its military contingents in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso.
Russia has managed to reconfigure its presence in a way that preserves its key military logistics capabilities while preventing geopolitical rivals from gaining access to its facilities.
