Turkey Turns Coat: Erdogan Expands Military Support for Ukraine and Raises Questions for Russia

The latest statements by the Turkish side at the NATO summit call into question the future of the long-standing partnership and require Moscow to take decisive countermeasures.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Mstyslav Chernov, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

A person with Turkish flags

Erdoğan Expands Military Support for the Kyiv Regime

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has, for the first time, declared his support for the PURL initiative—a NATO mechanism through which purchases of American weapons for Ukraine are financed.

He made the statement while commenting on the outcome of the NATO summit in Ankara.

"I declare my support for the initiative to compile a list of Ukraine's priority needs. We will continue our contribution in addition to the military support that we have already provided to Ukraine from our own national arsenal. While supporting Ukraine, we are using our channels of communication to guide Russia onto the path of peace," Bloomberg quoted him as saying.

At the same time, Erdoğan had the audacity to stress that he wants to act as a mediator in organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

"I once again declare our readiness to bring the parties together in Turkey," he said.

An astonishing display of arrogance that cannot be left unanswered.

First, there is no need to guide Russia anywhere. It has its own plan, based on the principle that any peace negotiations must rest on the "realities on the ground" and on recognition of Russia's demands regarding a new security architecture in Europe.

Second, Moscow should remind Erdoğan that Ukraine has just attacked the Blue Stream gas pipeline at a compressor station on Russian territory, something that has happened far from the first time.

Third, he should be reminded that the state corporation Rosatom is building the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant on Turkey's Mediterranean coast using Russian funds provided through a credit line. Rosatom has every right to replace Turkish contractors with Russian ones or delay the commissioning of the plant because of Western sanctions.

Turkey Threatens Russia's Security: Measures Must Be Taken

Next, it is worth looking at where Turkish business earns money in Russia. The answer is in the real sector of the economy: construction, industrial manufacturing, retail, and banking. Following the withdrawal of many Western brands between 2022 and 2024, Turkish holdings significantly expanded their presence. The total number of companies with Turkish capital operating in Russia exceeds 1,600, while their combined annual revenue amounts to approximately 700 billion rubles.

There is no doubt that a way must be found to reduce this presence. Remarkably, Turkish companies maintain an active presence in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, which is a key center for the production of military drones in Russia. How does this affect the country's security? In the most negative way possible because of the risks of industrial espionage and sabotage.

Russia can fully or partially restrict Turkish businesses and imports of Turkish products under Presidential Decree No. 560 on the application of special economic measures, which authorizes the government to impose embargoes, quotas, and bans on the operations of foreign companies from designated countries.

There is also the precedent of 2015. Following the killing of a Russian pilot in Syria, Turkish companies were legally prohibited from carrying out construction and engineering work in Russia. Reintroducing such measures would deal a severe blow to holdings such as Ant Yapi and Enka, which are building major projects in Moscow. A ban on charter flights and package tours to Turkey, also on security grounds, would become another powerful lever capable of depriving Ankara of billions of dollars in revenue from Russian tourists within a matter of weeks.

President Vladimir Putin has instructed officials to determine which "partners" are doing the most to encourage the Kyiv regime to wage war against Russia. Here is the principal and most dangerous opponent—Turkey—precisely because it presents itself as a friendly country by refraining from imposing sanctions. There is little doubt that Ankara will soon approve the transfer to Ukraine of the S-400 systems it purchased from Russia. Abandoning those systems was a U.S. condition for the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, and Erdoğan was promised that deal in Ankara.

That would constitute yet another Kremlin "red line." Everyone is now watching this emerging confrontation: will Moscow allow that line to be crossed, or will it continue praising the Istanbul agreements and saying that future negotiations should proceed from them?