Oil, Politics, and American Games: What Remains of Venezuela Six Months After US Invasion

Venezuela has entered a phase of political preservation and a hidden struggle for power six months after the forcible removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to historian, politician, Secretary of the United Communist Party, and chairwoman of the New Labour trade union, Darya Mitina. In an interview with Pravda.Ru, the expert analyzed the current situation in the country, where the interim leadership is attempting to balance the preservation of sovereignty with the demands of Washington.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Franciny Fernández "CHINI", https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

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Maduro Remains President in Name While Economic Changes Accelerate

On the night of January 3, US forces carried out an operation in Caracas and several other regions of Venezuela. During the operation, Nicolás Maduro and his wife were detained and forcibly transported to the United States. In New York, the country's leader faced charges related to alleged involvement with narco-terrorist organizations. New details continue to emerge regarding the assault on the presidential residence by special operations units.

According to Mitina, despite Maduro's physical absence, official documents continue to identify him as the country's president. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has not yet secured full presidential status, creating a period of political limbo. At the same time, major shifts are taking place in the economy. Amendments to the hydrocarbons law have effectively stripped the state-owned company PDVSA of its monopoly, opening the market to foreign capital.

"No contracts with foreign states have been terminated. All cooperation programs with Russia formally remain in force, but in reality they have been placed on hold. The same applies to the investment projects Russia was pursuing in Venezuela — they are frozen, although nothing has been officially canceled. At the same time, contracts are now being signed with a number of countries that previously avoided cooperation with Venezuela because of the threat of US sanctions, including agreements for oil and petroleum product supplies. India, for example, which refrained from working with Caracas for many years, has now begun restoring that cooperation," she explained.

The expert stressed that Washington now effectively exercises unrestricted control over the country's resources, although the financial benefit to the American economy remains relatively modest, amounting to roughly $300 million. For US President Donald Trump, the Venezuelan case serves primarily as a reputational tool designed to demonstrate America's ability to achieve rapid victories amid setbacks elsewhere.

Meanwhile, eyewitness accounts from Caracas suggest that living standards have not fundamentally changed. Inflation remains high, while the modest increase in oil production to 1.2 million barrels per day stems not from industry growth but from the shipment of previously accumulated reserves.

"Contracts signed over the past six months with foreign oil companies, including Britain's BP and America's Chevron, have been finalized, but implementation has effectively not begun. The restructuring and modernization of the oil industry, which Chavistas discussed even before the recent dramatic events, are recognized as necessary, and attempts are being made, but so far with little success," she added.

Divisions Within Chavismo Deepen

Venezuela's domestic political landscape is increasingly defined by divisions within the ruling party. A faction of "left-wing" Maduro supporters is gradually losing influence to "right-wing" Chavistas promoted by Rodríguez. Prominent figures such as Vladimir Padrino López are seeing their influence diminish, while other allies of the former president have faced arrests. Patriotic circles expressed particular outrage over the extradition of Alex Saab to the United States, given his role in helping Venezuela circumvent sanctions. Washington's demands regarding the restoration of certain rights in the energy sector also play a role in these developments.

Mitina noted that Chavista positions remain strong at the grassroots level, including among governors and municipal authorities, but ideological unity is being eroded by external pressure. Meanwhile, the opposition has behaved surprisingly passively. At the same time, the international community continues to monitor developments involving the republic's civilian fleet, including ongoing discussions surrounding the interception of a tanker carrying a shipment of raw materials.

"Chavismo has survived — the majority of deputies, governors, and mayors remain in control. There has been no political coup. Chavistas continue to control both the security apparatus and civilian institutions. However, a division has emerged between right-wing and left-wing factions. Maduro's supporters are giving way to right-wing Chavistas promoted by Delcy Rodríguez. Several key ministers have already left their posts or have been reassigned to secondary positions," the expert said.

Uncertainty Over Venezuela's Future Direction Persists

The situation remains uncertain, and the six-month period has provided no definitive answer regarding the country's future course. Venezuela continues to maneuver in an effort to preserve what remains of its sovereignty under conditions of economic blockade. Analysts have already emphasized that international law faces serious challenges when civilian vessels are forcibly stopped in neutral waters.