EU Maritime Inspections of Russian Oil Tankers Raise Risk of Escalation at Sea

Brussels has authorized EU member states to inspect tankers carrying Russian oil subject to sanctions in the Mediterranean Sea, a step that, according to critics, could increase the risk of a direct military confrontation in international waters.

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Oil tanker at sea

EU Expands IRINI Mission

Naval vessels from EU member states have received permission to board ships transporting sanctioned Russian oil in the Mediterranean, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said during an informal meeting of defense ministers in Cyprus on June 8.

According to Kallas, EU naval forces have already begun carrying out inspections of vessels.

"The idea is also to exchange best practices among member states and to disrupt Russia's activities,” she said.

Detentions of so-called "shadow fleet” tankers will take place within the framework of Operation IRINI, which was originally established in 2020 to enforce the arms embargo on Libya. Its mandate has now been adapted to include economic measures directed against Russia.

National governments whose naval vessels are currently participating directly in Operation IRINI — involving all 27 EU member states — have not yet commented on Kallas's statement.

Russia Adopts Its First Extraterritorial Law

Russia is preparing measures in response to what it describes as piracy. President Vladimir Putin has signed legislation amending the laws "On Defense” and "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation.” The amendments allow the Russian president to deploy the Armed Forces abroad "to protect Russian citizens who have been arrested, detained, or subjected to criminal prosecution by foreign or international courts.”

Most vessels associated with the so-called shadow fleet operate under flags of convenience from third countries, including Panama, Gabon and Liberia, but employ Russian crew members.

Previously, Russia lacked a clear legal basis for military intervention in cases involving the detention of such vessels in international waters. The new law links potential action not to the ship's flag but to the citizenship of its crew members.

According to supporters of this interpretation, the detention of tankers by the EU's IRINI mission on allegations of sanctions evasion would fall within the scope of the new legislation. They argue that an attempt by European special forces to board a tanker protected by the Russian Navy or a security detachment could be interpreted as an attack, potentially giving those on board grounds to use force in response.

The Baltic Sea May Be Next

The current EU decision applies to the Mediterranean Sea, but observers suggest similar measures could eventually extend to the Baltic Sea, which many analysts describe as having become, in practical terms, a NATO-dominated maritime area.

For Russia, however, the Baltic remains a strategic supply corridor for Kaliningrad and a key export route for oil shipments from the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.

The most widely publicized recent incident in the Mediterranean involved the attack on the Russian gas carrier Arctic Metagaz. The vessel's crew was evacuated. Russia's Ministry of Transport described the incident as "maritime piracy” and stated that it occurred with the "connivance” of EU countries.

France has been particularly active in actions against tankers, reportedly detaining four vessels. Attempts by the French or Italian navies to arrest Russian crew members could compel Russia to reinforce the Mediterranean Squadron of its Navy from its base in Tartus, Syria.

At the same time, shortages of larger naval vessels may lead Russia to rely on mobile armed security teams placed aboard commercial ships for routine voyages.

The principal factor restraining further escalation, according to supporters of this view, remains the risk of higher oil prices resulting from disruptions to major shipping corridors, a development that could have serious consequences for Europe.

The EU decision shifts economic sanctions into the realm of direct enforcement on major maritime trade routes. Brussels is effectively testing whether Moscow is prepared to risk a military confrontation to protect commercial cargoes, or whether its newly adopted legislation will remain largely symbolic.

It is worth noting that several European countries that previously detained tankers carrying Russian oil later released them. France recently released the captain of the tanker Tagor. In addition, despite previous warnings, the United Kingdom declined to intercept shadow fleet vessels passing through the English Channel.

Whether the situation changes following Brussels' latest decision remains to be seen.