Political Turmoil in Romania Threatens Pro-Western Government

A serious split has emerged within the ruling circles of another Eastern European country, which threatens to turn into a radical change in its foreign policy vector.

Photo: flickr.com by Andrei Stroe, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Romanian flag

Collapse of the Ruling Coalition in Romania

The pro-Western government in Romania is falling apart, creating a new headache for Brussels after the victory of the party of Rumen Radev in Bulgaria.

Romania is entering a phase of open political crisis after the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which holds the largest number of seats in parliament, will today withdraw its support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan (a representative of the liberals, PNL). The coalition government of four parties came to power 10 months ago, when the results of the presidential elections became clear. It should be recalled that the first round was annulled in 2024 due to suspicions of a "hybrid war” conducted by Russia in favor of nationalist Călin Georgescu.

Only a year later, victory was drawn through manipulations for Nicușor Dan, who adheres to a pro-European course.

The ruling coalition was forced to take unpopular measures — raising taxes and cutting spending in order to keep the budget deficit within 6.2% of GDP, which is already high by EU rules. This led not only to falling ratings and growing support for the opposition, but also to conflict within the coalition itself. The adoption of the 2026 budget was accompanied by sharp disputes between the PSD, which demands an increase in social payments, and the PNL, which insists on strict austerity.

The PSD also accuses the prime minister of selling state property in energy and mining companies (graphite), a company producing graphene, and so on without consultations. Bolojan, however, publicly stated that he does not intend to resign voluntarily.

Dan Calls to Preserve the Pro-Western Government at All Costs

Dan called on the parties to preserve the alliance and warned that he would not approve a prime minister if nationalists from AUR vote for him.

"I still hope that we will be able to find a formula to preserve the pro-Western government in Romania, and that this will be a solid foundation,” said Dan.

The liberals may propose another candidate acceptable to the PSD in order to preserve the majority and avoid early elections. If they refuse to replace Bolojan, he may try to lead the government without the support of the PSD, which will make the cabinet extremely unstable. Leaders of the PSD have allowed for the possibility of leaving the government, which will automatically lead to the collapse of the current broad coalition.

According to polls, the AUR party is currently leading in the ratings (it took second place in the elections). In the event of new elections, it may gain a majority and will oppose sending additional military aid to Ukraine and support a departure from the strict anti-Russian line adopted in the EU. According to the Constitution of Romania, early elections are possible if parliament rejects two candidates for the post of prime minister within 60 days after the first candidate is nominated by the president.

Sanctions Against Russia May Become a Thing of the Past

The problems facing Romania, as well as all countries in the European Union, consist of recession, inflation, business closures, unemployment, declining state investment, and falling living standards, especially among pensioners and vulnerable groups. This presents Brussels with very uncomfortable challenges related to the possible rise to power of long-restrained non-systemic forces.

It appears that Russia may not have to endure sanctions for long, if the government of Slovakia, the new authorities in Hungary, and the new government of Bulgaria maintain a course toward pragmatic relations with Russia. Romania will undoubtedly join them in the foreseeable future.