Oil at Risk: Saudi Arabia Pressures Washington Over Hormuz and Red Sea Threats

Saudi Arabia demands the United States should lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations with Iran. The demand specifically refers to the American blockade, which began on Monday.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by lawepw, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

Saudi Arabia, capital Riyadh

Fears of Iranian Control and Economic Fallout

Saudi officials are concerned that Iran could ultimately consolidate control over the strait once the conflict ends. In the kingdom's view, such an outcome would represent an economic catastrophe for countries across the Persian Gulf.

In addition, Riyadh considers a potential retaliatory move by Iran highly likely: the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This route currently carries the bulk of Saudi Arabia's exports.

Uncertain Guarantees from Houthi Forces

There are reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia has received assurances from Yemeni Houthi forces, which allegedly pledged not to strike the kingdom's territory or Saudi vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, this information has not been officially confirmed and remains at the level of speculation.

Sources cited by The Wall Street Journal emphasize that the situation remains крайне unstable, and the Houthis could resume attacks or begin charging transit fees at any moment.

Oil Flows Disrupted and Redirected

Before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, approximately 15-20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz.

In early March, traffic through the strait was effectively blocked by Iran in response to those attacks. Shipping resumed later, but only for countries considered friendly to Tehran — and even then, for a fee.

Saudi Arabia does not fall into that category, meaning it is currently unable to export its oil through Hormuz.

Shift to Red Sea Routes and Logistics Limits

The kingdom has redirected supplies via a pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. During two weeks in March, exports from this route reached up to 4.6 million barrels per day — more than three times the 2025 average.

In 2025, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait handled roughly 4.2 million barrels per day, significantly less than Hormuz. Back in 2023, the figure exceeded eight million barrels daily, but Houthi attacks forced many shipments to reroute, including around Africa.

Traffic has not returned to previous levels, even after the Houthis pledged to halt attacks. Furthermore, many Gulf states cannot use this route at all, while those that can face strict logistical constraints such as pipeline and port capacity.

US Strategy: Pressure Through Maritime Blockade

The American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, launched on Monday, involves US naval forces intercepting Iranian tankers. Washington aims to pressure Tehran into continuing negotiations.

The first round of talks, held in Pakistan over the weekend, ended without publicly announced breakthroughs. At the same time, both sides have refrained from resuming large-scale strikes seen prior to the ceasefire declared before negotiations began.