Is Iraq Following Afghanistan? NATO Faces Exit Under Shiite Pressure

The Iraqi government will support the ultimatum issued by Shiite armed groups demanding the withdrawal of NATO coalition forces from the country. A repeat of the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan is looming.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by U.S. Air Force photo / Tech. Sgt. Jeremy T. Lock, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

Firemen in Iraq

Occupation of Iraq Nears Its End

The Iraqi resistance has given Washington five days to withdraw its troops from Iraq. In a statement, the influential group Kataib Hezbollah, part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, said that "the war started by the American enemy will end only on our terms.”

"Foreign soldiers will not remain in Iraq, from north to south. Moreover, we will not allow them to possess lethal weapons or air defense systems on our territory.”

There is little doubt that US bases will remain, as constant shelling makes their maintenance extremely costly and politically toxic due to troop losses. In fact, only Victoria Base in Baghdad and the Al-Harir Airbase (fewer than 2,000 personnel) in Iraqi Kurdistan remain, and both are regularly targeted by drone attacks.

The withdrawal of the base from Baghdad has already been announced in Washington and is seen as a victory for the Iraqi people, who have fought for two decades to rid the country of foreign occupation. France, Italy, Romania, and Spain have also announced the withdrawal of their contingents from Iraq, where they were present under coalition agreements with the United States.

Iraqi Government and Parliament Support Ultimatum

Public opinion in Iraq is strongly opposed to the American presence. Two years ago, parliament passed a decision to expel US bases, but Washington delayed action. Tensions escalated after Donald Trump opposed the return of Nouri al-Maliki as Iraq's prime minister, despite support from the parliamentary majority.

Trump issued an ultimatum: if al-Maliki comes to power, the United States will completely cease all assistance to the country.

Al-Maliki is a Shiite. In Washington's view, he represents Iranian interests in the region. Shiites make up about 60-64% of Iraq's population and dominate the country's political life. The prime minister of Iraq is always a Shiite.

The US Fails at Long-Term Planning

It is worth recalling that Saddam Hussein, killed by the United States, was a Sunni, and his overthrow increased the political weight of the Shiite majority, strengthening Iran's influence in Iraq in the long term. At the start of the US invasion in 2003, Iran was already considered one of the main adversaries of the United States and Israel, making the failure to account for the religious factor a major intelligence miscalculation.

This pattern is characteristic of American policy: decisions are often driven by immediate needs rather than long-term strategy.

Washington typically prioritizes short-term electoral gains, technology, and budgets, with decisions frequently made in the interests of lobby groups and specific corporations. This time, despite eliminating several high-ranking Iranian figures, the US has faced the threat of a "forever war,” massive financial costs, and destabilization of the global energy market.

US May Fully Withdraw from the Middle East

In the long term, aggression against Iran could result in a complete loss of US influence in the region. Attacks on infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could force these countries to distance themselves from Washington to avoid becoming targets.

If Gulf monarchies reach agreements with Iran mediated by China, they may no longer need an American "policeman.” China has already acted as a successful mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, restoring diplomatic relations and promoting itself as a "neutral broker.” Unlike the United States, Beijing does not impose its values or maintain military forces in the region, offering business and stability instead.

If countries such as Qatar or Bahrain follow Iraq in asking the US to leave, maintaining military bases in the region by force will become impossible. Peace agreements between Israel and Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, largely depended on US security guarantees under the Abraham Accords.

If the United States withdraws, Arab capitals may once again turn toward Iran to avoid confrontation, creating significant challenges for Israel.